According to Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a resource for forecasting risks from tropical storms worldwide, the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season will be 75 percent above normal, making it TSR's highest March forecast for activity in any year since the organization began real-time forecasts in 1984.

According to a release from TSR, the forecast is based on current and projected climate signals, including trade wind speeds over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, as well as high sea-surface-temperature predictions in the tropical North Atlantic. TSR said that trade winds influence the spinning motion in tropical storms, while sea-surface temperatures provide heat and moisture that can power the storms.

The release also stated that there is an 86 percent likelihood that activity will be in the top one-third of years historically.

Prof. Mark Saunders and Dr. Adam Lea compiled the forecast as part of the Benfield University College of London Hazard Research Center. They plan to provide monthly updated forecasts through Aug. 2007.

More information is available at http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/.

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