Risk Management Solutions (RMS) recently reaffirmed its prediction of increased hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin and expects major hurricanes in particular to increase in activity.
According to RMS, a key driver of the elevated expectation of land-falling hurricane risk is an increase in the modeled frequency of major hurricanes (Category 3 and higher) forming in the Atlantic. RMS also said that increased frequency and intensity of hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean Basin, as observed since 1995, are driven by higher sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic and by associated changes in atmospheric circulation.
Because of this expectation, the RMS also said that it is projecting 40 percent higher insurance losses on average across the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the Southeast from 2007-2011. Additionally, they expect losses in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast to increase by at least 25 percent relative to those derived using long-term 1900-2006 historical average hurricane frequencies.
Joshua Darr, director of model management at RMS, said in a release that experts also reaffirmed that the "increase in activity of the most severe Category 3-5 hurricanes will be higher than the increase in Category 1-2 storms, based on the high likelihood of warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic."
More information is available at www.rms.com.
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