Hurricanes Helene, Milton could reach $55 billion in losses
Moody’s: Estimates take into account wind, storm surge and precipitation-induced flooding.
Combined U.S. private market insured losses from Hurricanes Helene and Milton will likely range between $35 billion and $55 billion, according to Moody’s RMS Event Response.
Estimates were associated with wind, storm surge and precipitation-induced flooding.
The initial combined loss estimate includes a combination of observational data, detailed field reconnaissance so far spanning more than 2,000 miles, and aerial imagery analyses from both storms in the affected region, Mohsen Rahnama said, Moody’s chief risk modeling officer.
“Our reconnaissance teams are in Florida right now, and continue to survey the impacted areas,” he added. “Estimating losses in these events is challenging and it is important to consider all associated complexities and uncertainties, especially in the overlapping regions affected by both hurricanes.”
According to Moody’s, estimate uncertainties for the storms include:
- Complex hazard patterns: The outer rainbands of Hurricane Milton also produced numerous damaging tornadoes in southern Florida. Additionally, the storm interacted with a mid-latitude jet over the Gulf of Mexico that resulted in dual swaths of strongest winds: one to the south of the storm associated with the tropical portion of Milton, and one that wrapped around the back of the system (i.e. to the north) associated with its interaction with the jet.
- Coverage leakage across events: Preliminary reports indicate several instances where structures damaged in Helene that may have been uninsured or underinsured for flood, were also affected by high winds and wind-driven rain in Milton.
- Event attribution: If a claim was opened after Helene and if there is additional damage in Hurricane Milton, it will likely result in a single payout, but there will be questions on which event the payout is assigned to, and the resulting impact on potential reinsurance recoveries.
- Annual hurricane deductibles: Most homeowner policies in Florida have an annual hurricane deductible. If the deductible was exhausted during Helene, it could mean higher losses for any damage covered by the insurer in Milton.
- Damageable Exposure: The overlap in high winds across the two storms makes it challenging to assess damage. Structures damaged by Helene are unlikely to have been repaired before Milton and may be prone to additional damage from Hurricane Milton.
Hurricane Milton roared ashore in Florida near Sarasota late on Wed., Oct. 9, knocking out power to more than 3 million customers and causing widespread flooding.
Hurricane Helene formed on Sept. 24, before carving a path of unprecedented destruction through Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Tennessee.
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