Hurricane Milton on track for historic danger, damage
Some weather-risk modelers are saying this hurricane could be another Katrina.
As the latest Atlantic hurricane barrels toward Florida’s Gulf Coast with record-high wind speeds, weather forecasters and risk modelers have assembled an array of predictions about the storm’s potential impact.
The key factor is whether Hurricane Milton will throttle the entire Tampa Bay metropolitan area when it makes landfall as a Category 4 or 5 storm or quickly change course, which is becoming more common for such weather events.
Morningstar DBRS Research places loss projections between $60 billion and $100 billion, “potentially making Hurricane Milton’s insured losses on par with those of Hurricane Katrina.”
The St. Petersburg, Orlando, Sarasota and Fort Meyers areas also lie in the storm’s potential projected path, which could exacerbate existing damage from Hurricane Helene. A State of Emergency has been declared in most Florida counties, and Gov. Ron DeSantis warned residents that power outages and transportation challenges and supply shortages are likely after the hurricane makes landfall. DeSantis suspended highway tolls two days before Milton’s anticipated arrival to encourage residents to evacuate. “This will help keep traffic moving and be one less thing for people to worry about ahead of Milton,” the Governor said.
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The CoreLogic Hazard team also weighed in on Milton’s potential destruction, noting that, “More than 500,000 homes with a combined reconstruction cost value of approximately $123 billion at risk of storm surge flooding.”
Moody’s added that roughly 235,000 commercial properties could be in the hurricane’s direct path.
Most risk modelers impress upon the fact that “a high degree of uncertainly” surrounds exactly how Hurricane Milton will behave. “Exact location and intensity at landfall are still uncertain, but areas up and down the western Florida coast should be preparing for a major event,” Acrisure Re said in a press release.
“The hurricane is forecast to make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane between Tampa Bay and Fort Myers late Wednesday night into very early Thursday morning, with estimated winds around 125 mph and potential for further strengthening. It is now one of the strongest hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin since Dorian in 2019,” Anna Neely, managing director and head of Catastrophe R&D at Howden Re said in a prepared statement. “By midday Wednesday (Oct. 9), the storm is likely to encounter wind shear which could weaken it. As wind shear takes effect, Milton’s wind field is projected to expand significantly and could make landfall as a Major Category 3 or 4 hurricane.”
She added that Milton’s storm surge is likely to be higher than what was produced by Hurricane Helene.
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