While storm surge from Hurricane Helene was 7-9 feet in Florida, Milton's flooding could be as high at 15 feet, Howden Re reports. (Credit: Graphics by Justin Roth, associate director of Catastrophe Analytics R&D at Howden Re.) While storm surge from Hurricane Helene was 7-9 feet in Florida, Milton's flooding could be as high at 15 feet, Howden Re reports. (Credit: Graphics by Justin Roth, associate director of Catastrophe Analytics R&D at Howden Re.)

As the latest Atlantic hurricane barrels toward Florida's Gulf Coast with record-high wind speeds, weather forecasters and risk modelers have assembled an array of predictions about the storm's potential impact.

Vehicles passed through a watery intersection in St. Petersburg, Fla., on Wed., Oct. 9, 2024, as Hurricane Milton continued to develop over the Gulf of Mexico. The storm is expected to bring record-high surge flooding to the region, which is still recovering from September's Hurricane Helene. (Photo: Tristan Wheelock/Bloomberg) Vehicles passed through a watery intersection in St. Petersburg, Fla., on Wed., Oct. 9, 2024, as Hurricane Milton continued to develop over the Gulf of Mexico. The storm is expected to bring record-high surge flooding to the region, which is still recovering from September's Hurricane Helene. (Photo: Tristan Wheelock/Bloomberg)

The key factor is whether Hurricane Milton will throttle the entire Tampa Bay metropolitan area when it makes landfall as a Category 4 or 5 storm or quickly change course, which is becoming more common for such weather events.

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Elana Ashanti Jefferson

Elana Ashanti Jefferson serves as ALM's PropertyCasualty360 Group Chief Editor. She is a veteran journalist and communications professional. Reach her by sending an e-mail to [email protected].

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