Harris vs. Trump: How will they shape the property industry?
Policy shifts may have long-term effects on insurers, insureds, underwriters, mortgage pros and real estate agents.
We know that government policies and rulemakings can affect both public and private-sector jobs on a day-to-day basis. From property valuations in flood zones to future-focused portfolio monitoring to insurance claims processes, a change in climate policy can have far reaching consequences, including strengthened industry standards or new reporting requirements that affect companies nationwide.
Even a new mandate to disclose details surrounding the impacts of climate change on businesses can result in a cascade of questions that redefine business practices across enterprises.
In the property market alone — the world’s largest asset class — few companies have the data to accurately disclose this information and demonstrate the financially material impact of changing weather patterns on their portfolios.
And that is only one potential change.
Depending upon the new occupant at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, policy shifts may have long-term effects on insurers, underwriters, mortgage professionals, real estate agents, homeowners and data providers.
Whether policies are tweaked or drastically overhauled under the new administration, it is important to understand the climate risk-related policy priorities that Americans can expect to see from each candidate if they were to win the election.
The Harris Administration: How might climate policy evolve?
Throughout her career, Vice President Kamala Harris has embraced conventional Democratic Party positions on climate change and natural hazard risk. As the Attorney General of California, she sued several major oil companies over pollution allegations, leading to multiple multi-million dollar settlements. As a United States Senator for California, she co-sponsored the Green New Deal blueprint, and when running for President in the Democratic Party primary in 2020, she promoted a $10 trillion climate plan.
As a result, even though her 2024 presidential platform is light on climate policy details, we can make some reasonable assumptions about the actions she would take as president, as most (if not all) decisions would align with party priorities to build upon policies previously established by the Biden Administration.
Vice President Kamala Harris: Climate Change Policy Forecasts
- Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) — In August 2022, then-Senator Harris cast the tie-breaking vote in the Senate to pass the IRA, and she has since supported its continued implementation. We project these investments in clean energy, the U.S. electrical grid, and general resiliency and mitigation measures will continue to increase under her administration.
- Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) — Also known as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act, this law has already provided $461 billion to states, indigenous peoples, territories, and local governments for over 60,000 projects focused on improving the resiliency of our nation’s roads, bridges, and ports. Based on its success, we expect this funding source to continue — if not grow — under a Harris Administration.
- Biden-era regulations — We also expect a Harris Administration to accept the baton from her predecessor and continue defending Biden-era climate regulations, such as the Securities & Exchange Commission’s climate-related disclosure rule, as these regulations face court battles from across the aisle. We can expect to see an increase in the judicial challenges to new federal regulations now that the Chevron doctrine has been struck down by the Supreme Court.
- Federal science funding — The Democratic Party platform calls for increased funding for scientific research agencies, including the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and National Science Foundation (NSF), among other scientific agencies. We would expect the Harris Administration to propose larger budgets across the board for these agencies.
- Other Democratic party priorities — Other policy positions that we expect to be pursued under a Harris Administration include a focus on reducing agricultural sector greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050, a tripling of the capacity for the American Climate Corps by 2030, and a continued push for electric vehicle production.
A final note on Harris: Due to the considerable demands of the job, many past presidents have often relied on their respective vice president to take the lead on specific issues, such as President Obama relying on then-Vice President Biden to lead his administration’s cancer research efforts. This could be a possibility for Harris’ running mate, Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota, who found success enacting climate policies in his home state and is a self-proclaimed GIS nerd.
Trump Administration: What could change from Biden-era policy?
If former President Donald Trump were to become the second president in history to serve two non-consecutive terms, we would likely see a major reversal in climate risk-related policies. This outlook is based upon the priorities established during his first administration.
Former President Trump: Climate Change Policy Forecasts
- SEC climate-related disclosures rule — A Trump Administration could immediately act to remove these new SEC disclosure requirements, as part of a larger strategy to steer the country away from environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards.
- 401(k) investments — The first Trump Administration amended the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) to limit the ability of retirement plan fiduciaries to include climate risk information in their investment decisions. While this ruling was overturned by the Biden Administration, we could see a second Trump administration move quickly to reinstate the original rule.
- Energy efficiency standards — Former President Trump has repeatedly referenced energy standards at his political rallies, and we expect he would be quick to reverse Biden-era policies such as clean energy and electric vehicle subsidies, offshore wind development, and conservation rules for commercial refrigerators and freezers.
- International withdrawals — The former president has already signaled his intention to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement (again), and there is talk that he may also wish to withdraw from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which could limit U.S. involvement in groups such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
- Other Republican party priorities — Other policy positions espoused by the Republican Party platform that we expect to be pursued under a second Trump Administration include an increase in domestic oil drilling, an overhaul of the congressionally mandated National Climate Assessment, and a general weakening of federal agency capabilities to address climate change.
Like Harris above, if Trump were to rely on his running mate, Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio, to take charge of specific climate-related issues, it’s likely he would focus on domestic energy production and opening more land for oil and shale drilling.
It’s also plausible that a Vice President Vance could take on environmental safety regulations; following the February 2023 train derailment and subsequent environmental disaster in East Palestine, Ohio, Senator Vance became the lead co-sponsor of the Railway Safety Act and has consistently pushed higher safety standards.
However, there may be some Biden-era policies that a Trump Administration may find harder to overturn, including the continuation of the IIJA. Two years after implementation, the majority of funding has gone toward Republican-leaning states, with many in the party now touting the infrastructure investments they’ve received, regardless of whether they voted for the original bill. A second Trump administration may look to continue funding these investments, albeit with fewer climate-related strings attached.
Of course, we will not know the outcomes for most of these policies until January 2025.
Russell McIntyre holds the position of principal, public policy and industry relations for CoreLogic. This article first published on the CoreLogic website and is republished here with permission from CoreLogic.