There is a high chance the 2024 hurricane season will be above normal, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The NOAA predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season, the data showed, with predictions for a range of 17 to 25 named storms. Of those, the NOAA says eight to 13 are forecasted to become hurricanes, including four to 7 major hurricanes at wind speeds at or above 111 mph. Already storms like Hurricanes' Beryl, Debby, Ernesto and Francine have combined for just over $10.5 billion in total damages. "Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today," says FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks. "Already, we are seeing storms move across the country that can bring additional hazards like tornadoes, flooding and hail. Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape today can make a difference in how people can recover tomorrow." New NOAA tools for hurricane analysis and forecasting in 2024 include:
- The Modular Ocean Model or MOM6 will be added to the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System to improve the representation of the key role the ocean plays in driving hurricane intensity. Another model, SDCON, will predict the probability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification.
- NOAA's new generation of Flood Inundation Mapping will provide information to emergency and water managers to prepare and respond to potential flooding and help local officials better prepare to protect people and infrastructure.
- NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, in partnership with the NHC, will issue an experimental rainfall graphic for the Caribbean and Central America during the 2024 hurricane season. This graphic provides forecast rainfall totals associated with a tropical cyclone or disturbance for a specified time period.
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Joe Toppe
Joe Toppe serves as managing editor of PropertyCasualty360.com. Joe is also a father of three, an author, and longtime lover of baseball.
