Colorado State, TSR increase 2024 hurricane season predictions
All conditions this year including weather patterns, water temperature, and computer modeling are pointing to an unusually strong hurricane season.
Atlantic hurricane season has arrived, and as always, predictions from experts give us an indication as to what to expect.
Will it be an active year with a large number of hurricanes, possibly dangerous ones, expected, or will it be a reasonably mild and calm year?
In general, when El Niño is stronger, the Atlantic hurricane season is quieter. When La Niña is the prevailing pattern, the season is busier. The El Niño directs storms away from land. When the temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean are warmer hurricanes tend to be stronger and able to counteract the effects of El Niño.
This year, the Atlantic Ocean is already abnormally warm, much warmer than normal. All conditions this year such as weather patterns, water temperature, and computer modeling are pointing to an unusually strong hurricane season.
In April, the Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science had already issued its first predictions for this year as has Tropical Storm Risk (TSR). On May 23 NOAA issued its prediction, and it is the agency’s most aggressive prediction it has ever made, predicting 4 to 7 major hurricanes.
As global temperatures rise, hurricanes intensify faster as they approach the coast than they did decades ago.
As of July 5, TSR has increased its prediction for the year, going from 22 to 26 named storms, from 11 to 13 hurricanes, and from 5 to 6 major hurricanes. Colorado State has also updated their forecast, from 23 to 25 named storms, from 11 to 12 hurricanes, and from 5 to 6 major hurricanes.
| NOAA as of 5/24 | UK Met Office as of 5/24 | Co. State Univ. as of 4/24 | Univ. of Az. as of 4/24 | Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) as of 4/24 | The Weather Company/ Atmospheric G2 as of 4/24 | Average | |
| Named Storms | 17-25 | 16-28 | 25 | 21 | 26 | 24 | 14.4 |
| Hurricanes | 8-13 | 8-16 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 7.2 |
| Major Hurricanes (Cat 3 and above) | 4-7 | 2-6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 3.2 |
All predictions are pointing towards an above average, dangerous year for any insured within range. As a reminder, flood insurance through FEMA requires a 30-day waiting period. Those in vulnerable areas should look for coverage now.
The names of hurricanes rotate on a six year schedule; the names for this year’s storms are as follows: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valerie, William. These names were last used in 2018. The names Florence and Michael from that year were retired due to the extensive damage those storms caused.
More importantly though, is steps people can take to be prepared. There are millions of homes on the coasts vulnerable to hurricanes. The first step in preparation is the purchase of flood insurance; there’s a 30-day waiting period for policies from NFIP, so coverage can’t be bought right before a storm. There are a few private providers, but most policies are still purchased through NFIP.
Ensuring that the property can weather a storm or any other natural phenomenon is also important. In areas prone to flooding, keeping items off the floor prevents damage to personal property. Having a place to store outside equipment such as patio furniture and grills ensures that they won’t get blown around or damaged by wind. Having a home inventory is important; there are many apps that make it easier to construct. An inventory also helps an insured know that they’re coverage is set at the correct amount. Many people underestimate the value of their personal property and just how much property they have.