Weather science, risk modeling and the 2024 hurricane season

We may still be in tornado season, but hurricane season, and the predictions for what kind of year it will be, always generate attention.

Hurricanes are easier to predict than tornadoes. Early predictions may be updated, but they do provide an opportunity for insureds to prepare for any possible damage.

Listen now: Helping homeowners batten down their policies for hurricane season

Spotlight on 2024

Will it be an active year with a large number of hurricanes — possibly dangerous ones? Or will it be a reasonably mild and calm year?

In general, when El Niño is stronger, the Atlantic hurricane season is quieter. When La Niña is the prevailing pattern, the season is busier.

El Niño directs storms away from land. When the temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean are warmer, hurricanes tend to be stronger and counteract the effects of El Niño. This year, the Atlantic Ocean is already abnormally warm; much warmer than normal. All conditions this year such as weather patterns, water temperature, and computer modeling are pointing to an unusually strong hurricane season.

The Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science has already issued its first predictions for this year as has Tropical Storm Risk (TSR). (Other forecasts from the likes of NOAA and Accuweather are forthcoming.) This would mean that five named storms and three hurricanes could make landfall on the United States.

And in case you’re interested or just want to know whether you might become a hurricane this year, the names for this year’s storms are as follows:

Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valerie, and William.

The list of names is rotated on a six-year basis, so these names were last used in 2018. The names Florence and Michael from that year were retired due to the extensive damage those storms caused.

Before the storm

More urgent ahead of hurricane season are the steps people can take to be prepared.

The first is the purchase of flood insurance; there’s a 30-day waiting period for policies from the government’s National Flood Insurance Program, so coverage can’t be bought right before a storm. There are a few private flood-insurance carriers, but most policies are still purchased through NFIP.

Making sure that an insured property can weather a storm or any other natural phenomenon is also important. In areas prone to flooding, keeping items off the floor prevents damage to personal property. Having a place to store outside equipment such as patio furniture and grills ensures that they won’t get blown around or damaged by wind. Having a home inventory is important; there are many apps that make it easier to construct. An inventory also helps an insured know that they’re coverage is set at the correct amount. Many people underestimate the value of their personal property and just how much property they have.

See also:

• Early forecast calls for ‘well above-average’ 2024 hurricane season
• Hurricane preparation step-by-step: What to do as a storm approaches
• Hurricane preparedness is increasingly crucial for businesses