Early forecast calls for 'well above-average' 2024 hurricane season
There is a 62% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall along the U.S. coastline.
The 2024 hurricane season is expected to see well above-average activity, according to the initial forecast from Colorado State University tropical weather researchers.
CSU researchers anticipate the upcoming hurricane season to see 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. An average season, based on data from 1991-2020, sees around 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes. The 2024 season is expected to be around 170% above average.
There is a 62% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall along the U.S. coastline, according to CSU’s estimates. The East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, has a 34% of seeing a major hurricane make landfall this year. The Gulf Coast —from the Florida panhandle to Brownsville, Texas in the west — has a 42% chance of a major hurricane making landfall. The probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the Caribbean is 66%.
Favorable conditions
Record warm water surface temperatures in the topical and eastern subtropical Atlantic are the major reason researchers are expecting an extremely active season.
When waters in eastern and central tropical and subtropical Atlantic are warmer than normal in the spring, weaker subtropical highs tend to develop and are accompanied by weaker winds blowing across the Atlantic. This is expected to continue to make sea water temperatures remain above average through the peak of hurricane season. In addition to fueling hurricanes, warmer than average Atlantic seas lead to lower atmospheric pressure and more “unstoppable atmosphere,” which further fuels hurricane formation.
The way conditions are shaping up is comparable to weather patterns seen during 1998, 2010 and 2020, which all saw very active Atlantic hurricane seasons, according to Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist in the department of atmospheric science at CSU.
“This highlights the somewhat lower levels of uncertainty that exist with this outlook relative to our typical early April outlook,” Klotzbach said in a release.
The next 2024 hurricane season forecast from the CSU team will be published June 11.
Related: