Development is consuming significant acreage in farmland and coastal wetlands that helped to shield urban areas from Gulf waters during hurricanes. (Credit: EvgeniyQW/Adobe Stock)
Hurricanes provide a window into the potential effects of climate change as it progresses. Steadily increasing atmospheric CO2 helps to warm the air and the oceans, and those rising temperatures provide more potent fuel for developing tropical cyclones. Meanwhile, temperatures are climbing even faster at the poles than at the equator, which recent research links to changes in atmospheric steering currents and potential reductions in vertical wind shear, muting an inhibiting factor for hurricanes.
Other factors may tend to dry and stabilize the atmosphere. Still, long-term studies generally point to more frequent severe storms over coming decades, reflecting more CO2 in the atmosphere. Given a sustainability scenario provided by the latest IPCC report, also known as SSP 1-2.6, "taking the green road" if governments and societies manage to reduce CO2 emissions and limit the average global temperature rise by about 1.7ºC by 2050, still insurers' average annual losses (AAL) are expected to increase by more than 20% compared to 2021 AALs, based on U.S. hurricane climate change projections.
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