Rocky property CAT renewals stress insurer, reinsurer tug-of-war
Property catastrophe reinsurance was the most challenging segment of the market during the recent renewal season.
Today’s property insurance market is highly unpredictable and hinging between a natural catastrophe-exposed and non-catastrophe-exposed business.
Property catastrophe reinsurance, which typically accounts for the lion’s share of reinsurance spend among property-casualty insurers, was the most challenging segment of the market during the January 1 renewal season. While insurers adapted to market conditions with retention increases and consideration of top-end limits — thereby easing some pressure on capacity and placing desired limits on programs during renewal — the result is that current demand for protection exceeds supply.
The definition of a natural catastrophe has broadened beyond traditional wind and earthquake thanks to increased losses from secondary perils such as wildfires, severe convective storms, and even winter freeze. For example, for the first time, underwriters are proactively evaluating accounts for the risk of freezing after industry loss from 2021’s Winter Storm Uri. The expanding definition of property catastrophe reinsurance makes risk increasingly difficult to model and price. Many insurers experienced increases of +50% on 1/1 treaties and took higher retentions, along with further restrictions on coverage. These increased costs are expected to be passed on to insurance buyers in many instances.
Current trends and the challenge for insureds
Valuation: Rate increases in 2023 were driven by scrutiny of values as most underwriters were surprised by the size of some losses, and because underwriting discipline on the matter has increased. For Q3 and Q4, property valuations are expected to continue to be an area of focus for underwriters, though valuation increases appear to be stabilizing. Underwriters may impose value-reported restrictions or margin clauses unless provided with a detailed explanation on renewal values.
Pricing: For 2023, the most desirable risks to underwriters will see rate increases in the +5 to +15% range; loss-challenged and less desirable risk accounts should expect +15% to +30%; and those with natural catastrophe exposures can expect to see greater pressure regardless of risk desirability and should be prepared for +20% to +40% of rate pressure. The most extremely challenged accounts from a natural catastrophe perspective should be prepared for rate increases of +50% or more.
As rates have accelerated, carriers are actively looking to maintain quality risks and less-challenging occupancies. Carriers are reducing capacity where property catastrophe reinsurance aggregation and lost estimates have increased due to inflation factors. Like 2006, following Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma, wind capacity will be in much shorter supply, especially for Southeast risks. Florida-based properties will be extremely challenged in securing adequate limits at affordable and reasonable pricing. Many accounts with significant exposures in Florida could see rates rise in excess of +50%. Similarly, the California earthquake market is experiencing increased capacity challenges over the prior two quarters.
Re-focus on the insurer-reinsurer relationship
As the upward rate pressure continues into the second half of 2023, insureds should prepare renewals as early as five months in advance.
Third and fourth quarter renewals will likely see some insurers running out of property catastrophe reinsurance limits for the year with no desire to add more. Most insurers will exceed annual premium and growth goals before year-end and therefore refrain from entertaining additional risks or they may maintain more highly challenged later year renewals which could worsen available supply. As an outcome of reduced capacity in the marketplace, clients may witness tangible delays in receiving renewal quotes from underwriters.
Insurers who articulate the effect of inflation on their portfolios and actively manage risk assessment tend to avoid reinsurers’ overly conservative inflation assumptions in analyzing insurer portfolios. Strong market relationships play an important role during renewal, particularly when new capacity is hard to come by, and in filling gaps in programs left by reinsurers exiting the property catastrophe space. Reinsurers that value insurer partnerships will ultimately fare better as the market evolves.
Rick Miller is managing director and Property Practice leader at Aon Risk Services.
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