P&C underwriting losses to moderate in 2023, Fitch Ratings reports
While underwriting losses are expected to improve, a return to profitability might be out of reach for 2023.
Significant premium rate growth in auto and property lines, which have been underperforming, is likely to help improve underwriting results in the U.S. Property & Casualty market this year, according to Fitch Ratings, which has a neutral outlook for the P&C industry based on a stable to improve 2023 performance.
Additionally, U.S. personal lines are anticipated to see improvements this year as “recent pricing and underwriting adjustments take hold amid normalizing insured catastrophe losses,” the ratings agency said in a release.
In 2022, personal lines proved a drag on the industry’s overall performance and caused a 31% decline in statutory earnings for the year. Catastrophe losses and poor results from auto segments pushed 2022’s combined ratio up 3 percentage points.
Overall, the industry saw a 102.5% combined ratio in 2022, which was a “significant” decline compared with a range of 99%-100% in the previous four years, according to ratings agency.
While the U.S. P&C industry’s loss ratio is expected to improve this year — Fitch Ratings projects a 100.4% ratio for 2023 — underwriting profits could remain under pressure for the remainder of the year. This is due to inflation-driven claims volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty.
“Higher potential claims cost volatility may result in future adverse reserve development. Variability in natural catastrophe losses remain concerning, compounded by sharp increases in reinsurance costs and less reliable available capacity,” Fitch Ratings noted.
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