The 2023 hurricane season is tracking to be slightly below average, according to the first estimate from hurricane and tropical weather researchers at Colorado State University. CSU's 2023 estimate projects 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. The average for 1991-2020 has been 14.4 named storms, 7.2 two hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes. Activity is expected to be around 80% of what is seen in an average season. The probability of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline is 44%, while the U.S. East Coast — including the Florida peninsula — has a 22% probability of seeing a major hurricane. The Gulf Coast, from the Florida panhandle to Brownsville county, has a 28% chance of seeing a major hurricane make landfall, CSU reported. The Caribbean has the highest probability of seeing a major hurricane, according to the estimate. While the season is projected to see below-average activity, researchers said coastal residents should still take proper precautions. "It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you," Michael Bell, a professor in the CSU Department of Atmospheric Science, said in a release. The above slideshow highlights the 10 states with the highest forecasted probability of being impacted by a named storm, hurricane and major hurricane during the 2023 season, according to data from the CSU research team.

Atlantic Basin sending mixed signals

However, researchers cautioned that there is more uncertainty around this year's forecast. At hand are "conflicting signals between a potentially robust El Nino and an anomalously warm tropical and subtropical Atlantic," the researchers wrote. Currently, tropical Pacific water temperatures are near normal and indications are that a transition to El Nino is likely in the coming months. El Nino tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean and into the tropical Atlantic, resulting in vertical wind shear that can rip hurricanes apart before they form, according to CSU. At the same time, sea surface temperatures are above normal in regions of the tropic and subtropic Atlantic. When these waters are warmer than normal it is often accompanied by weaker winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic and weaker subtropical highs. These conditions tend to favor above-average hurricane seasons. "Our analog seasons exhibited a wide range of outcomes, from below-normal seasons to hyperactive seasons," Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist with CSU's Department of Atmospheric Science and lead author of the report, said in a release. "This highlights the large uncertainty that exists with this outlook." Related:

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