Real non-life premiums globally are expected to grow by 2.2% in 2023 — down from a 3.3% growth expectation this time last year. This is based mostly on ongoing rate hardening in commercial lines. Non-life premium growth in emerging markets will outstrip that of advanced economies, with estimated real growth of 3% in 2022 and 4.2% in 2023. (Credit: zatevahin)
Before I get into my predictions for 2023, I would like to reflect briefly on my predictions for 2022 that I shared with PC360. While directionally correct, they did not account for the scale of market and economic disruption now shaping the risk landscape. For example, we expected that 2022 would be a big year for electric vehicle sales, but we did not anticipate the rate of growth would increase as it has.
We also knew that the disruption of supply chains caused by COVID-19 would continue, but we did not anticipate Russia's invasion of Ukraine, costing lives and creating energy and food shortages. Those events, coupled with the property pricing reckoning forced by Hurricane Ian, now have reinsurers cutting their exposures.
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