Hurricane Ian forms into Category 1 as it heads toward Florida

The National Hurricane Center anticipates Ian to become a major hurricane as it nears western Cuba later tonight.

“Regardless of Ian’s exact track and intensity, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rains along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of the week,” said Brad Reinhart, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center.

Early on September 26, 2022, Tropical Storm Ian intensified into a hurricane as it reached sustained winds of 75 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center, which reported Ian is likely to become a major hurricane as it nears western Cuba later tonight. The storm is expected to gain strength today and produce significant wind and storm surge in parts of western Cuba.

The problem forecasters are struggling with is exactly where it will make landfall in Florida, possibly anywhere from the Panhandle south to Tampa Bay.

“Ian is expected to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the middle of this week, but uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts remains higher than usual,” Brad Reinhart, a hurricane specialist at the center, wrote in his outlook.

“Regardless of Ian’s exact track and intensity, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rains along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of the week,” he said.

This means Ian could slam into sparsely populated areas in the Florida Panhandle south of Tallahassee or strike Tampa, St. Petersburg and possibly hit citrus groves. The path of the storm could cause travel delays, with some airlines warning customers flights could be canceled as the system moves across the Gulf of Mexico into the southern U.S.

A direct strike on Tampa from a major hurricane would push a wall of water into Tampa Bay, flooding the city and its suburbs and causing as much as $30 billion in losses and damage, said Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler with Enki Research.

Track Ian’s latest path

President Joe Biden approved an emergency declaration for Florida on Saturday, freeing federal disaster aid to the state. He also postponed a trip to Florida scheduled for Tuesday that included a Democratic National Committee rally in Orlando. Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency across all of Florida and warned residents to prepare.

One of the problems with determining exactly where Ian will hit is a larger low-pressure trough over the eastern U.S., said Ryan Truchelut, president of Weather Tiger. Some computer models predict that system will pull away earlier, which would put Ian on a more easterly coast threatening Tampa, while others have it remaining in place longer, which places the target on the Panhandle.

A direct strike on Tampa from a major hurricane would push a wall of water into Tampa Bay, flooding the city and its suburbs and causing as much as $30 billion in losses and damage, said Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler with Enki Research. (Credit: National Hurricane Center)

A strike near Tampa would come probably late Wednesday with Ian still a major hurricane on the five-step Saffir Simpson scale, while a Panhandle landfall would likely be toward the end of the week at Category 1 or 2 strength.

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