Munich Re: North Atlantic looking at active 2022 hurricane season
Munich Re recently released their hurricane predictions for 2022; joining a growing chorus warning of an active season.
Munich Re has joined the growing number of entities predicting an active 2022 hurricane season. According to their analysis, they expect as many as 18 named cyclones to hit the tropical North Atlantic this season. Eight of those storms, they predict, could become hurricanes, with four possible major hurricanes with wind speeds over 110 mph.
When it comes to the Northwest Pacific, Munich Re’s predictions veer in the opposite direction. They expect the naturally occurring El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to influence this year’s typhoon season in such a way that could create a storm season in the Northwest Pacific with below-average activity.
In addition to ENSO, the report states, sea surface temperature plays a part in how storms form, and with sea temperatures in the North Atlantic expected to be average or higher, it creates an environment more conducive to storm development. When it comes to the effect climate change has on hurricane season, while it doesn’t tend to cause more tropical cyclones, the report states, it can cause severe hurricanes to become more frequent.
“Three consecutive years of ENSO conditions, which favour tropical cyclones, is truly unusual. Needless to say, for insurers it is tremendously important to determine whether this was just a fluke or may become more common in future. In any case, whether and, if so, how climate change affects the ENSO phases like El Niño and La Niña is the subject of intensive research,” Anja Rädler, a meteorologist and climate researcher at Munich Re, is quoted in the report.
While no one can know for sure how many tropical storms will make landfall in any given season, what has been proven is how catastrophic losses from these events can be. According to Munich Re’s report, there were 21 North Atlantic tropical cyclones in 2021, including seven hurricanes and four major hurricanes (category 3-5). Hurricane Ida, the costliest of 2021’s storms, caused overall losses of $65 billion. Only $36 billion of that damage was insured. Because of the destructive nature of hurricanes and other tropical storms, prevention – including early warning systems, more durable buildings and appropriate insurance coverage – is necessary to minimize loss and protect human life.
“Given the enormous potential losses, it is essential that we have a precise grasp of hurricane-related risks,” Torsten Jeworrek, Member of the Board of Management and CEO of Reinsurance, stated in the report. “Accordingly, our staff includes a range of meteorologists and climate researchers. In this way, we can support our society and economy with insurance covers, even when there are changes in risk, for instance due to climate change.”
When it comes to world-wide storm activity, while Japan is normally on the receiving end of the highest typhoon-related losses, Munich Re found an upward trend in insured losses in both China and India.
Munich Re’s full 2022 hurricane outlook can be found in full here.