The nuclear exclusion: Preparing for the unthinkable
The war in the Ukraine raises the question of what kind of insurance coverage could apply in the event of a nuclear attack?
As someone who grew up in the 1970s and ‘80s, it came as a bit of a surprise to learn that my children had never been through a nuclear drill. They had never heard terms like fallout shelter, duck and cover, or nuclear winter. On one hand, it shows that after the fall of the Soviet Union, our society viewed the cold war as over. On the other hand, why did we ever lose sight of the tragic outcomes that could happen in a nuclear war?
With the Russian incursion in Ukraine, perhaps it is time to revisit how to best be prepared for the worst. Why does this matter to insurers? For starters, many people don’t realize that a nuclear explosion isn’t covered under most insurance policies. With that being said, if there ever were to be a nuclear war, insurance coverage will probably be the least of our worries, although one could argue that a properly prepared disaster plan is the best insurance one could hope for.
Preparing for the unexpected
Living in Florida, I have become accustomed to having a couple of weeks’ worth of supplies on hand. Even during the storms of 2004, when we were without power for a month, the supply chain was up and running within a couple of weeks. However, are we prepared to be without power for six months or more?
When I wrote the insurance fraud thriller, Deep State, a portion of the book included a nuclear bomb set to explode in the United States. To get an accurate depiction of what would happen in a nuclear explosion, I did extensive research and spoke with experts in the field of nuclear, chemical and biological warfare.
It is estimated that if a nuclear warhead coming from Russia were heading to the United States, people would have roughly 30 minutes to find shelter. But if a warhead were launched from international waters just outside of New York or Washington, D.C., residents would have as little as 10 minutes.
According to Irwin Redlener, a public health and disaster preparedness expert at Columbia University, people would not even have time to get their kids home from school. He further asserts that the United States does not have a sufficient warning system for nuclear threats.
Let’s start with the phases of a nuclear explosion. Ground Zero refers to the point on the earth’s surface (above or below) the center of the explosion. Most damage comes from the blast effects which create a shockwave of air radiating outward that produces sudden changes in air pressure that will crush buildings and high winds that will knock structures over.
Typically, the bomb will be detonated at an elevation above the ground to create maximum overpressure at close range, but less pressure over longer ranges.
Roughly 35% of the energy from a nuclear explosion is an intense burst of heat or thermal radiation. This will travel at the speed of light and is heard before the explosion. Looking at the flash will likely cause flash blindness, a temporary condition that may last as long as 30 minutes.
Severe burns can occur up to five miles from the point of the explosion, which can be fatal given the limited capacity of burn centers in the United States.
Following the burst of light and the blast will be the shockwave that contains wind speeds of 934 mph that dissipate with distance, typically causing catastrophic or destructive damage for 12 miles from ground zero.
As the shockwave passes all the debris that has been destroyed begins to descend from the atmosphere as radioactive fallout, which can travel for miles depending on the wind.
Basic steps to follow
In the event of a nuclear strike, it is very important to avert your eyes from the fireball. Experts suggest that a typical Russian nuke would be one megaton (80x greater than what was dropped at Hiroshima) and could temporarily blind people 13 miles away during the day and up to 53 miles on a clear night. As we learned as kids, drop to the ground with your face down and hands and arms tucked under the body to protect from flying debris and the risk of burns. Keep your mouth open so that your eardrums don’t burst from the pressure.
After the explosion, there will be roughly 15 minutes to find shelter before the fallout or sand-like radioactive particles reach the ground. Exposure to fallout can result in radiation poisoning or death.
Seeking shelter in the opposite direction of the wind provides the best hope of limiting exposure to fallout. The best shelters are in buildings or schools with few to no windows, or a basement. In the worst case, any shelter is better than being out in the open.
If you are stuck in the fallout, it is recommended that you immediately remove all clothing and wash your skin with water. Things like hand sanitizer and wipes will not be effective. Avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth.
People should shelter in place for 24 hours and have a plan to reunite with family after that period of time has elapsed.
The great unknown is if Russia, or another nuclear power for that matter, were to attack would it be from afar, the sea or even a handmade bomb such as the one buried in a stadium in Deep State? Bombs come in all shapes and sizes. While any nuclear explosion would prove catastrophic, one in a briefcase would cause far less damage than a one-megaton bomb exploding over a major metropolis.
According to Dr. Redlener, the six cities with the greatest likelihood of being attacked are New York; Chicago; Washington, D.C.; Los Angeles; San Francisco and Houston. That said, nobody knows for sure except the people in charge of launching the bombs. Whether you are in a large city or rural community the best line of defense is preparation.
There is also a site that you can visit to simulate the destruction of any given city at www.nuclearsecrecy.com.
Basic preparation suggestions
- Communications will be down. There will likely be an all-out assault on the telecom and electrical grids. In the event of a nuclear strike, there will likely be an electromagnetic pulse that will disable, at least temporarily, anything with a chip. Phones, radios, televisions and the like will be all be down. Having a hand-crank radio may be the only way to get word on what is transpiring, as well as utilizing 2-way radios, walkie-talkies and standard emergency radios.
- Electrical grids will be down. We have seen our grid overloaded by far less than a nuclear bomb. There is the potential that those who rely on electricity from grids within blast zones could be down for six months or more. Basic survival tools including multi-tools, a multi-plier, axe, fire-starting kit, compass, flares and flashlights are all beneficial.
- Water is essential for survival. Count on at least one gallon of water per person per day. Water purification tablets or portable water filters to purify things such as rainwater or fresh water from other sources. If you live near saltwater, investing in a personal desalinization device could be beneficial.
- Food is also essential for survival. Suffice it to say your local grocery store probably won’t be open for business. Having six months’ worth of food, be it canned goods or emergency food supplies will be essential.
- Emergency supply kit including trauma kits and respirators. You will likely be relying on yourself and those close to you for any medical treatment. Having tools, books and medications on hand will help in the event of injury or illness. Potassium iodide is critical to protect the thyroid from possible radiation and should be part of every emergency supply kit.
- Self Defense and safety. Human tendency is for survival and if you are prepared and others are not, this creates a dangerous situation for you and your family. Obvious self-defense methods would include being well trained with firearms and having a good stock of ammo on hand. But other deterrents can be used as primary safeguards including solar lights and alarms to deter intruders. There are also non-lethal tools such as tasers, paintball guns and pepper spray devices that can act as another line of defense.
- Family and Friends. With no electricity and no communication, it will be hard to regroup as a family. Families and groups of friends will need to band together in the aftermath. Regrouping takes time and coordination. A plan should be in place and shared with all pertinent people.
Now that I have made everyone’s day with gloom and doom, consider that nuclear weapons have been around since 1945 and only used twice, both times by the United States. Countries have exercised restraint due to the concept of mutually assured destruction. Being prepared for any disaster is critical and having a full preparation plan in place is much like an insurance policy. You hope you’ll never need it but if you do, you will be glad it is there to help you and your family.
Chris Tidball is an executive claims consultant with SecondLook, Inc. He has spent more than 30 years in the property and casualty space, in a variety of roles ranging from adjuster to claims executive to consultant. He is the author of multiple books, including Deep State, an insurance fraud thriller with a nuclear twist. He can be reached at ctidball@2ndlook.net. Opinions expressed are the author’s.
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