Is Texas' power grid winter ready now?
Should other Southern states be wary of deep freezes hampering energy generation capacity as well?
During the blast of fridge weather that hit a large portion of the country in early February 2022, the Texas power grid showed a resiliency that was lacking during Winter Storm Uri the previous year, which saw 200 people die, massive power outages and some $18 billion in insured losses.
“Compared to last year, I would say the Texas grid has done a good job. There weren’t many outages,” says Patrick Hauser, head of energy, North America, for Swiss Re Corporate Solutions. “One difference is the temperatures didn’t drop to the same levels as seen last year and peak demand didn’t reach the same level.”
Temperatures in Texas during last year’s storm dropped to minus 2 degrees Fahrenheit, and the thermostat stayed below 40 degrees for 11 consecutive days, Bloomberg reported. This year’s lows were forecasted around 10 degrees with just three consecutive days of below 40-degree temperatures.
This warmer weather was particularly beneficial to oil and natural gas sites, which saw fuel flow hampered during 2021’s adverse weather, according to Hauser, who notes overall energy generation capacity in 2022 was less impacted than the year prior.
As much as 7 billion cubic feet of daily gas supplies in the state were lost during the 2021 storm, according to Bloomberg.
“Without fuel, you can’t run a power plant. That was the main issue last year and it happened to less extent this year. Wind and solar took a lot of the blame last year, but the vast majority of generation capacity that was lost was because of gas-fired power plants,” he tells PropertyCasualty360.com, noting wind and solar performed well during the recent winter spell.
Additionally, Texas put winterization rules in place for power generation, increased spare energy supplies by double or triple in some cases and turned plants on before they were needed so they could warm up, according to Bloomberg.
Should other southern states be warned?
“I think the main message is that climate change is going to further enhance the probability of extreme weather,” says Megan Linkin, senior parametric natural catastrophe underwriter at Swiss Re. “That includes extreme cold outbreaks.”
As the planet warms, atmospheric changes will allow for Arctic air to pour further south, which can lead to “extreme outbreaks like we saw in Texas,” according to Linkin, who holds a background in meteorology.
Although more freezing temperatures could be seen in the South, Texas’ deregulated energy market was an influencing factor in 2021’s energy problems. “All the other Southern states are able to import power as needed from other states,” Hauser explains.
When it comes to equipment though, he says historically warm-weather states didn’t prepare power plants for winter as robustly as in Northern states or places such as Canada.
“From that perspective, it is similar in Texas to other Southern states. But they deal with other perils too, like named windstorms and hail that happen in Texas too,” he says. “As Megan mentioned, with more severe weather expected due to climate change it certainly makes sense to make the grid more resilient.”
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