Another ‘above-average’ hurricane season expected in 2022
This news follows two-consecutive years of higher-than-average named storms.
Indicators are pointing to a higher-than-average hurricane season for 2022, according to an early forecast from the Colorado State University (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project.
Seasons with above-average activity typically have 13-16 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes and 2-3 major hurricanes, the researchers reported.
This year’s storm period has a 40% chance that ocean temperatures in the North Atlantic will be above average, which can lead to a more intense hurricane season, according to CSU researchers.
Further, no El Nino will occur this year. When Pacific waters are warmed by El Nino there tend to be fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic, CSU research indicated. Additionally, El Nino generates increased vertical wind shear, which can further reduce hurricane activity in the Atlantic. La Nina has the opposite effect.
The 2022 forecast comes on the heels of the third most active hurricane season on record for named storms, according to the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I). The 2021 season had 21 named storms, including seven hurricanes. The period saw four major hurricanes (category 3-5) and trailed only 2020 (30 named storms) and 2005 (28 named storms).
“As the nation’s financial first responders, insurers helped their customers recover economically from the impacts of another very active hurricane season in 2021,” Triple-I CEO Sean Kevelighan said in a release. “The widespread damage the United States experienced across many regions highlighted the importance of being financially protected from catastrophic losses and that includes having adequate levels of property insurance and flood coverage. In fact, we not only saw historic levels of flooding in coastal areas this year but throughout inland communities, as well.”
Hurricane Ida was the most damaging of the past season, which was projected to be in the top five of most costly tropical storms on record, in terms of insureds’ losses, according to Triple-I. Widespread wind and flood damage in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. were major drivers of storm-related losses.
The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project will release its first formal 2022 hurricane season forecast on April 7, 2022.
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