1. New risk models, shifting capacity, new products & pricing
The past year was one of economic recovery, but uncertainty remains. In addition to peaks and troughs in COVID-19 infection, persistent supply chain disruption and inflation, insurers face new loss patterns in property lines (as catastrophic losses linked to climate change seem to be). These conditions combine to challenge insurers as they determine which lines of business are likely to offer competitive advantages long-term.
While insurers were pulling all the levers of financial resilience in 2021, pricing is the lever that got the most attention. We saw this especially in commercial P&C lines in which insurers increased prices in response to both increasing cyber and climate risk. In personal lines, homeowners insurance rates also rose in response to catastrophic losses.
As predicted, we saw changes in risk models, such as new industry risk models for cyber and Federal Emergency Management Agency's new pricing methodology for the National Flood Insurance Program. We also saw increasingly targeted usage-based insurance models, including a product for light aircraft pilots who want coverage by the week or day. These shifts are indicative of the industry dynamics pressuring capacity and return on equity.
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