In the week ending Sept. 25th, the CDC predicts that the total number of weekly COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. could increase to more than 11,000 — up 56% from the death total of 7,327 for the seven-day period ending Sept. 1, and up 16% from the total of 9,860 that the CDC team predicted for the week ending Sept. 4. The latest actual weekly death count, and the totals in the forecasts, are much higher than the average of about 1,000 to 5,000 deaths per week for the period from April through July, but not as high as the totals the CDC recorded for the pandemic mortality peaks that occurred around April 2020 and January of this year. In April 2020, reported COVID-19 mortality peaked at around 15,000 deaths per week. During the wave that crested earlier this year, mortality peaked at around 25,000 deaths per week. Related: 'Long COVID': States with the most and fewest persistent cases |

Methods

The Division of Viral Diseases at the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases creates COVID-19 mortality forecast charts using forecasts from several government, academic and commercial organizations. The complete data spreadsheet provides weekly COVID-19 mortality predictions for each state from each forecast supplier, based on factors such as population density and COVID-19 vaccine take-up rates. The CDC team also combines each separate prediction to create "ensemble" predictions for each state and the country. Most of the forecasts for the country suggest that the COVID-19 mortality rate for the United States as a whole could range somewhere from about the same as what it is now up to a level about three times as high as the current mortality rate. Based on forecasts available Aug. 30, the latest state data chart indicates that the percentage change in the number of weekly COVID-19 deaths could range from a decrease of 8.3% in Rhode Island to an increase of 100% or more in two states. The median change could be an increase of about 21%. The median is much higher than the 16% average national forecast increase because many of the states where the number of deaths is expected to increase rapidly have relatively small populations. See the table below for a look at the forecast data for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. For a look at the 10 states where, according to the ensemble forecasts, mortality could increase the most between the week ending Sept. 4 and the week ending Sept. 25, see the slideshow above.

Related: States with the biggest birth declines due to COVID-19