Federal government charts illustrating trends in new COVID-19 case counts and hospitalization rates show that some states may be heading into a severe new wave of the coronavirus. Hospitalization rates may be a better indicator of outbreak severity than new case counts because ups and downs in the number of people diagnosed with COVID-19 might reflect changes in how easy and cheap it is for people to get tested, rather than infection rates. Hospitals, in contrast, are likely to admit people with COVID-19 only when those people are seriously ill. The U.S. hospitalization rate for people with confirmed cases of COVID-19 has started to climb rapidly from record lows in June. U.S. hospitals reported 30,481 hospitalizations of people with COVID-19 for the seven-day period ending July 24. That was up 33% from the total for the week ending July 17, and the total for the week ending July 17 was up 35% from the total for the week ending July 10. Those numbers mean that the hospitalization rate for the week ending July 24 was about 80% higher than the rate for the week ending July 10. Michael Neidorff, the CEO of Centene, a major health insurer, told securities analysts recently in a conference call the company held to go over second-quarter earnings that he believes the United States is facing a "pandemic of the unvaccinated." COVID-19 trackers are wondering if, given how long new COVID-19 infections take to lead to visits to doctors and how slow many states are to report their numbers to the federal government, the real trends are worse. Related: How businesses can align with public health to overcome crises

Goodbye, June

The United States looked in June as if it had gotten the COVID-19 pandemic well under control. The country had vaccinated about 79% of people ages 65 and older, 59% of adults ages 18 and older, and 48.6% of all residents against COVID-19. Some combination of vaccines, an increase in natural immunity, weather changes, and changes in the virus that causes COVID-19 caused the number of new cases recorded each week, per 100,000 U.S. residents, to plummet to just 34. That new case count was down from a peak of 536 in January. The June new case count was also down from the previous low of 60 per 100,000 people, which was recorded in May 2020, when the first wave of the pandemic was ebbing and shortages of supplies limited patient access to testing. This past June, falling case counts translated into falling hospitalization rates. Hospitals reported just 2.5 hospitalizations of patients with confirmed cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 U.S. residents. That was the lowest rate recorded since the pandemic began, down from 15.8 hospitalizations per 100,000 people in January. Related: COVID claims development: Workers' compensation & beyond

Hello, August

In the week ending July 24, about 51% of the people admitted to U.S. hospitals with confirmed cases of COVID-19 were ages 18 to 59, up from 50% the week before. Another clue is what the numbers look like at the state level. The number of COVID-19 hospitalizations per 100,000 state residents ranges from a low of one in Vermont to 33 in another state, with a median of about 6, in one state. For a look at the five states with the worst COVID-19 hospitalization rates, see the slideshow above. For data for all 50 states and the District of Columbia, see the table below.

A U.S. COVID-19 Pandemic Snapshot (for the week ending July 24)
State	Population	People who are fully vaccinated as % of total population	Cases per 100,000 people, last 7 days	Cases, % change from previous week	Confirmed COVID-19 admissions, last 7 days	Confirmed COVID-19 admissions per 100,000 people, last 7 days	Confirmed COVID-19 admissions, % change from previous week	Working age admissions as a percentage of all admissions	Deaths per 100,000 people, last 7 days
Alabama	4,903,185	34%	227	167%	1,080	22	115%	44%	0.8
Alaska	731,545	45%	138	19%	70	10	52%	47%	0.4
Arizona	7,278,717	45%	123	31%	676	9	8%	52%	0.7
Arkansas	3,017,804	36%	367	48%	808	27	15%	51%	1.7
California	39,512,223	52%	46	-31%	2,734	7	43%	62%	0.2
Colorado	5,758,736	54%	42	-14%	339	6	5%	53%	0.5
Connecticut	3,565,287	63%	31	17%	83	2	24%	52%	0.1
Delaware	973,764	52%	42	31%	24	2	33%	58%	0.1
District of Columbia	705,749	54%	32	-7%	21	3	-16%	71%	0
Florida	21,477,737	49%	266	11%	7,072	33	55%	52%	1.2
Georgia	10,617,423	38%	90	26%	1,452	14	64%	48%	0.5
Hawaii	1,415,872	53%	91	85%	42	3	27%	45%	0.4
Idaho	1,787,065	37%	67	13%	103	6	16%	35%	0.6
Illinois	12,671,821	48%	48	16%	616	5	30%	49%	0.3
Indiana	6,732,219	44%	51	0%	423	6	29%	46%	0
Iowa	3,155,070	49%	40	6%	154	5	57%	54%	0.4
Kansas	2,913,314	45%	115	10%	300	10	2%	47%	1.4
Kentucky	4,467,673	45%	82	10%	895	20	5%	22%	0.2
Louisiana	4,648,794	37%	306	51%	1,255	27	81%	53%	1.4
Maine	1,344,212	63%	26	18%	41	3	-61%	22%	1.1
Maryland	6,045,680	58%	29	73%	139	2	11%	58%	0.4
Massachusetts	6,892,503	64%	35	38%	124	2	25%	54%	0.3
Michigan	9,986,857	49%	24	50%	275	3	17%	49%	0.3
Minnesota	5,639,632	54%	30	33%	128	2	10%	52%	0.2
Mississippi	2,976,149	34%	141	1%	422	14	19%	56%	0.9
Missouri	6,137,428	41%	274	16%	1,271	21	15%	45%	1.4
Montana	1,068,778	44%	51	29%	99	9	1%	43%	0.4
Nebraska	1,934,408	49%	33	-19%	110	6	20%	31%	0.3
Nevada	3,080,156	44%	148	-14%	753	24	6%	57%	1.9
New Hampshire	1,359,711	58%	15	5%	31	2	63%	48%	0.3
New Jersey	8,882,190	58%	54	67%	346	4	36%	48%	0.4
New Mexico	2,096,829	57%	50	6%	131	6	49%	52%	0.5
New York	19,453,561	57%	56	74%	590	3	36%	47%	0.2
North Carolina	10,488,084	44%	68	39%	718	7	58%	53%	0.4
North Dakota	762,062	40%	29	45%	20	3	54%	40%	0.1
Ohio	11,689,100	46%	41	67%	435	4	3%	52%	0.3
Oklahoma	3,956,971	40%	149	23%	622	16	19%	45%	0.5
Oregon	4,217,737	56%	56	22%	154	4	26%	50%	0.3
Pennsylvania	12,801,989	52%	28	51%	332	3	37%	37%	0.3
Rhode Island	1,059,361	61%	35	21%	14	1	75%	64%	0.2
South Carolina	5,148,714	40%	73	6%	332	6	34%	52%	1
South Dakota	884,659	47%	9	-54%	28	3	-32%	50%	0.1
Tennessee	6,829,174	39%	112	59%	557	8	58%	47%	0.4
Texas	28,995,881	43%	120	58%	3,287	11	11%	56%	0.7
Utah	3,205,958	44%	86	-28%	272	8	-10%	61%	0.3
Vermont	623,989	67%	13	-6%	4	1	100%	50%	0.2
Virginia	8,535,519	54%	39	6%	299	4	32%	49%	0.3
Washington	7,614,893	57%	69	10%	321	4	12%	45%	0.5
West Virginia	1,792,147	39%	34	16%	65	4	10%	32%	0.9
Wisconsin	5,822,434	52%	34	54%	249	4	59%	44%	0.5
Wyoming	578,759	36%	105	7%	108	19	38%	43%	1
NATIONAL*	173,333,693	48%	4,270	18%	29,882	6	26%	40%
Source: White House COVID-19 Team, Joint Coordination Cell, Data Strategy and Execution Workgroup, Community Profile Report. * The figures for percentage changes and number of cases per 100,000 people are medians. The other figures are totals.