Federal government charts illustrating trends in new COVID-19 case counts and hospitalization rates show that some states may be heading into a severe new wave of the coronavirus. Hospitalization rates may be a better indicator of outbreak severity than new case counts because ups and downs in the number of people diagnosed with COVID-19 might reflect changes in how easy and cheap it is for people to get tested, rather than infection rates. Hospitals, in contrast, are likely to admit people with COVID-19 only when those people are seriously ill. The U.S. hospitalization rate for people with confirmed cases of COVID-19 has started to climb rapidly from record lows in June. U.S. hospitals reported 30,481 hospitalizations of people with COVID-19 for the seven-day period ending July 24. That was up 33% from the total for the week ending July 17, and the total for the week ending July 17 was up 35% from the total for the week ending July 10. Those numbers mean that the hospitalization rate for the week ending July 24 was about 80% higher than the rate for the week ending July 10. Michael Neidorff, the CEO of Centene, a major health insurer, told securities analysts recently in a conference call the company held to go over second-quarter earnings that he believes the United States is facing a "pandemic of the unvaccinated." COVID-19 trackers are wondering if, given how long new COVID-19 infections take to lead to visits to doctors and how slow many states are to report their numbers to the federal government, the real trends are worse. Related: How businesses can align with public health to overcome crises |

Goodbye, June

The United States looked in June as if it had gotten the COVID-19 pandemic well under control. The country had vaccinated about 79% of people ages 65 and older, 59% of adults ages 18 and older, and 48.6% of all residents against COVID-19. Some combination of vaccines, an increase in natural immunity, weather changes, and changes in the virus that causes COVID-19 caused the number of new cases recorded each week, per 100,000 U.S. residents, to plummet to just 34. That new case count was down from a peak of 536 in January. The June new case count was also down from the previous low of 60 per 100,000 people, which was recorded in May 2020, when the first wave of the pandemic was ebbing and shortages of supplies limited patient access to testing. This past June, falling case counts translated into falling hospitalization rates. Hospitals reported just 2.5 hospitalizations of patients with confirmed cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 U.S. residents. That was the lowest rate recorded since the pandemic began, down from 15.8 hospitalizations per 100,000 people in January. Related: COVID claims development: Workers' compensation & beyond |

Hello, August

In the week ending July 24, about 51% of the people admitted to U.S. hospitals with confirmed cases of COVID-19 were ages 18 to 59, up from 50% the week before. Another clue is what the numbers look like at the state level. The number of COVID-19 hospitalizations per 100,000 state residents ranges from a low of one in Vermont to 33 in another state, with a median of about 6, in one state. For a look at the five states with the worst COVID-19 hospitalization rates, see the slideshow above. For data for all 50 states and the District of Columbia, see the table below.

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A U.S. COVID-19 Pandemic Snapshot (for the week ending July 24)

StatePopulationPeople who are fully vaccinated as % of total populationCases per 100,000 people, last 7 daysCases, % change from previous weekConfirmed COVID-19 admissions, last 7 daysConfirmed COVID-19 admissions per 100,000 people, last 7 daysConfirmed COVID-19 admissions, % change from previous weekWorking age admissions as a percentage of all admissionsDeaths per 100,000 people, last 7 days
Alabama4,903,18534%227167%1,080 22115%44%0.8
Alaska731,54545%13819% 70 1052%47%0.4
Arizona7,278,71745%12331%676 98%52%0.7
Arkansas3,017,80436%36748%808 2715%51%1.7
California 39,512,22352%46-31%2,734 743%62%0.2
Colorado5,758,73654%42-14%339 65%53%0.5
Connecticut3,565,28763%3117% 83 224%52%0.1
Delaware973,76452%4231% 24 233%58%0.1
District of Columbia705,74954%32-7% 21 3-16%71%0
Florida 21,477,73749%26611%7,072 3355%52%1.2
Georgia 10,617,42338%9026%1,452 1464%48%0.5
Hawaii1,415,87253%9185% 42 327%45%0.4
Idaho1,787,06537%6713%103 616%35%0.6
Illinois 12,671,82148%4816%616 530%49%0.3
Indiana6,732,21944%510%423 629%46%0
Iowa3,155,07049%406%154 557%54%0.4
Kansas2,913,31445%11510%300 102%47%1.4
Kentucky4,467,67345%8210%895 205%22%0.2
Louisiana4,648,79437%30651%1,255 2781%53%1.4
Maine1,344,21263%2618% 41 3-61%22%1.1
Maryland6,045,68058%2973%139 211%58%0.4
Massachusetts6,892,50364%3538%124 225%54%0.3
Michigan9,986,85749%2450%275 317%49%0.3
Minnesota5,639,63254%3033%128 210%52%0.2
Mississippi2,976,14934%1411%422 1419%56%0.9
Missouri6,137,42841%27416%1,271 2115%45%1.4
Montana1,068,77844%5129% 99 91%43%0.4
Nebraska1,934,40849%33-19%110 620%31%0.3
Nevada3,080,15644%148-14%753 246%57%1.9
New Hampshire1,359,71158%155% 31 263%48%0.3
New Jersey8,882,19058%5467%346 436%48%0.4
New Mexico2,096,82957%506%131 649%52%0.5
New York 19,453,56157%5674%590 336%47%0.2
North Carolina 10,488,08444%6839%718 758%53%0.4
North Dakota762,06240%2945% 20 354%40%0.1
Ohio 11,689,10046%4167%435 43%52%0.3
Oklahoma3,956,97140%14923%622 1619%45%0.5
Oregon4,217,73756%5622%154 426%50%0.3
Pennsylvania12,801,98952%2851%332 337%37%0.3
Rhode Island1,059,36161%3521% 14 175%64%0.2
South Carolina5,148,71440%736%332 634%52%1
South Dakota884,65947%9-54% 28 3-32%50%0.1
Tennessee6,829,17439%11259%557 858%47%0.4
Texas 28,995,88143%12058%3,287 1111%56%0.7
Utah3,205,95844%86-28%272 8-10%61%0.3
Vermont623,98967%13-6% 4 1100%50%0.2
Virginia8,535,51954%396%299 432%49%0.3
Washington7,614,89357%6910%321 412%45%0.5
West Virginia1,792,14739%3416% 65 410%32%0.9
Wisconsin5,822,43452%3454%249 459%44%0.5
Wyoming578,75936%1057%108 1938%43%1
NATIONAL*173,333,69348%4,27018%29,882626%40%
Source: White House COVID-19 Team, Joint Coordination Cell, Data Strategy and Execution Workgroup, Community Profile Report. * The figures for percentage changes and number of cases per 100,000 people are medians. The other figures are totals.

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Allison Bell

Allison Bell, a senior reporter at ThinkAdvisor and BenefitsPRO, previously was an associate editor at National Underwriter Life & Health. She has a bachelor's degree in economics from Washington University in St. Louis and a master's degree in journalism from the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. She can be reached through X at @Think_Allison.

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