How COVID-19 will impact the 2020 hurricane season
Surprising complications from decreased air traffic is one crucial consequence of the pandemic for this year's hurricane season.
June 1 marked the start of the 2020 hurricane season, and forecasters are expecting it to be a volatile one. Weather experts predict the Atlantic basin will produce “above-average” levels of activity, with 14–18 tropical storms forecasted, 7–9 storms reaching hurricane strength, and 2–4 systems becoming major hurricanes.
Irrelevant to any forecast predictions, the 2020 hurricane season already poses a unique set of risks to coastal communities as the COVID-19 pandemic rages on.
A new report by Allianz, “Storms Surging: Building Resilience in Extreme Weather,” details 2020 season predictions, reviews 2019 hurricane activity, and takes note of the impacts and risks posed by COVID-19 and weather forecasting.
In the event of a disaster, the impacts of COVID-19 are likely to worsen the situation, particularly as the U.S. endures continued national economic turmoil. Recovery efforts and the availability of medical care may be compromised by social distancing concerns, finite medical resources, and the depletion of local, state and federal funding and more.
Overcoming these unique challenges will require a unique approach to disaster planning and preparedness measures from government entities, risk managers and the public.
COVID-19 and weather forecasting
The implications from decreased air traffic is another major consequence and “one of the biggest surprises” of COVID-19 on the 2020 hurricane season, according to Thomas Varney, regional manager for the Americas at Allianz Risk Consulting.
Airlines have made drastic cuts to flight schedules due to the coronavirus pandemic. These aircrafts collect vast amounts of data on weather patterns vital to researchers for forecasting models, Varney explains.
“As overwhelming declines in air travel continue, the lack of data will impact researchers’ ability to make forecast predictions or understand various weather patterns as they develop,” Varney says.
Supporting Varney’s claim, the Allianz Storm Surge report cites a 2017 American Meteorological Society study that found aircraft observations reduced six-hour forecast errors in wind, humidity and temperature by 15% to 30% across the US.
Without accurate forecast predictions, proper disaster preparation measures may be comprised. From an insurance perspective, this can result in larger claims and losses. The more accurately experts can predict impending weather, the better-prepared individuals, communities and businesses can be.
Preparing for new COVID-related hurricane risks
Last month, FEMA released a guide to help emergency managers and public health officials prepare for disasters while continuing to respond to the coronavirus that outlines updated federal hurricane response and recovery planning in light of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The guide, “COVID-19 Pandemic Operational Guidance for 2020 Hurricane Season,” describes anticipated challenges to disaster operations posed by COVID-19, planning considerations for emergency managers, and outlines how FEMA plans to adapt response and recovery operations to these new realities.
The full report is available online.
See also: