"The panel is optimistic about a return to economic growth in the latter half of 2020," said Hunter, who is also the chief economist at KPMG. "Despite a sharp deterioration in labor market conditions, the median forecast suggests conditions will improve by the end of the year with support from aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus, as panelists expect the Federal Reserve to hold steady on near-zero interest rates through 2021." (Credit: peshkov/iStockphoto)
The COVID-19 pandemic has pushed the U.S. economy into a recession in the first half of the year, but a recovery will begin in the second half, according to the consensus forecast of 45 business economists polled by the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) in early April.
First-quarter growth, adjusted by inflation, is seen declining at a 2.4% annual rate, followed by a 26.5% drop in second-quarter real GDP. In the third and fourth quarters, real GDP is expected to rise by 2% and 5.8%, respectively.
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Bernice Napach
Bernice Napach is a senior writer at ThinkAdvisor covering financial markets and asset managers, robo-advisors, college planning and retirement issues. She has worked at Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg TV, CNBC, Reuters, Investor's Business Daily and The Bond Buyer and has written articles for The New York Times, TheStreet.com, The Star-Ledger, The Record, Variety and Worth magazine. Bernice has a Bachelor of Science in Social Welfare from SUNY at Stony Brook.
