The 'R' word may not be at the top of everyone's mind, but recession predictions are proliferating among business leaders. If a recession happens in 2020, where you're located may be crucial to how well you ride it out, according to FitSmallBusiness.com. The online publication recently repeated a study on the best states to survive a downturn it conducted in 2017 when recession fears spiked. Researchers found that the states best equipped to survive a recession next year were quite different from those in the earlier study. This year's top state jumped from 14th place two years ago, and four other states joined the top 10. All of the new crop of states best prepared for recession boasted business diversity and firm financial stability. According to FitSmallBusiness, when a state has multiple trade partners across the globe, its economy is more diverse, and not solely reliant on one source. North Dakota lost its top ranking in the new study because 88% of its exports go to just one country, Canada. The site's editors used the following weighted metrics as criteria for ranking states: |

  • Stabilization (surplus or emergency) funds available (15%)
  • Economic strength and diversity (15%)
  • Debt-to-income ratio (10%)
  • Unemployment rate (10%)
  • Median home value (10%)
  • Exports per capita (10%)
  • Export diversity (10%)
  • Deposits per capita (7.5%)
  • Average credit card debt (5%)
  • State income tax rate (5%)
  • 2008 recession performance (2.5%)

States were scored on a 50-point scale in each category, with 50 being the highest score. "Our purpose with this study was to shed light on economic indicators that could be key difference-makers in the future," Eric Noe, chief content officer at FitSmallBusiness, said in a statement. "We learned that the most recession-proof states have positive debt-to-income ratios, and don't rely on one specific geographic region when it came to trade." Check the gallery to see the 10 best states to survive a 2020 recession and how they scored in each key metric. Related: |

 

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Michael S. Fischer

Michael S. Fischer is a longtime contributing writer for ThinkAdvisor. He previously reported on trade and intellectual property topics for the Economist Intelligence Unit and covered the hedge fund industry for MARHedge and Reuters News Service.

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