$221 billion in U.S. wildfire risk exposed, 780k homes at extreme risk, CoreLogic reports
Roughly 8.7 million acres burned in 2018 alone – the sixth-highest total on record, CoreLogic reports.
The United States has seen record-levels of wildfire activity in recent years, creating widespread devastation in at-risk communities and plaguing the insurance industry with heavy, consecutive catastrophe losses.
The highest annual totals of burned wildfire acreage on record have occurred in nine of the last 14 years. In 2018, 8.7 million acres burned, which is roughly equivalent to the area of 74 of the 75 largest U.S. cities. This is now the sixth-highest annual total of burned wildfire acreage on record, according to CoreLogic’s 2019 wildfire risk report.
Examining burned acreage records of the last 20 years, CoreLogic researchers found that over the last two decades, there has been a shift towards increased burned acreage as larger and more devastating wildfire events have occurred.
The 2019 CoreLogic Wildfire Risk Report provides insights into single-family and multifamily residential properties in the U.S. at risk of damage from wildfires. The report examines the most at-risk states that possess the highest probability of property loss due to wildfire and their associated reconstruction cost value (RCV).
The 13 Western states analyzed in the report annually see the greatest amount of acreage burned, and experience the most severe and devastating wildfire events in the country in regard to loss of life and property damage.
Key findings from the 2019 wildfire risk report
Similar to other natural disasters, a review of wildfire events in recent years showcases a rise in both wildfire activity and severity of these catastrophes.
In California, 2017 and 2018 were two devastating years for wildfires and are now the worst seasons on record for the Golden State. Recovery efforts from the mass destruction and heavy insured losses of the 2017 wildfire season were worsened as 2018 brought an equally devastating season. The California Department of Insurance reported that as of April 2019, insurance claims from the Camp, Hill and Woolsey fires of November 2018 were already over $12 billion, matching California’s 2017 total insured loss cost of roughly $12 billion.
From examining the evidence, CoreLogic warns that this devastating trend may continue throughout the next few wildfire seasons.
4 factors that affect wildfire risk
CoreLogic details four factors that affect wildfire risk and are used to model and predict wildfire risk. They are fuel, fire history, aspect and slope. The report notes that ember ignition is also an important factor to consider in a property’s risk level.
“There are many homes, the number of which is rapidly increasing due to new construction, in areas known as the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) and Wildland-Urban Intermix. Both of these areas are susceptible to ember ignitions even though individual property parcels may not contain any high-risk fuels,” the report states.
Based on this information, the report goes on to breakdown wildfire risk totals for U.S. homes by low, moderate, high and extreme risk. The RCV is calculated based on the total (100%) destruction of the residential structure using the combined cost of construction materials as well as equipment and labor.
Tabling their research findings, CoreLogic breaks down wildfire risk in the U.S. by risk level, total residences and estimated RCV:
| Risk | Total Residences | Total Estimated RCV in Billions |
| Low | 28,716,516 | $7,888 (billion) |
| Moderate | 326,838 | $108.95 |
| High | 924,623 | $318.38 |
| Extreme | 775,654 | $220.20 |
Further, the report notes the highest number of residences at risk are located in the desert and Pacific Southwest regions of the U.S. These regions also have the highest RCV of residences at risk of wildfires.
The full 2019 CoreLogic wildfire risk report can be accessed on their website.
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