Storm strengthens in Gulf of Mexico as it races to Louisiana

A mass of thunder and rain in the Gulf of Mexico could become Tropical Storm Barry on Thursday and hit Louisiana as a hurricane this weekend, worsening flooding in New Orleans and causing almost $1 billion in damage.

The system, which was about 115 miles (185 kilometers) southeast of the Mississippi River’s mouth as of 8 a.m. New York time, has already curbed energy production in the Gulf and helped lift oil prices to a seven-week high. It’s also prompted Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards to declare a state of emergency, while hurricane and tropical storm watches are in place along the state’s coastline.

The storm — with current top speeds of 35 miles an hour — may drop as much as 20 inches of rain in some places, according to an advisory from the U.S. National Hurricane Center. Barge traffic has been snarled in the Mississippi River, where water levels may reach the highest in 90 years. Oil producers have cut 32% of oil output and 18% of natural gas production in the Gulf.

“It’s a disorganized mass, but we’re thinking later this morning, it becomes a tropical depression and then later today a tropical storm,” said Paul Walker, a meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. “It has been a slow process.”

The system is pulling dry air into the Gulf and possibly slowing development, Walker said. It’s also relatively close to the coast, probably hampering its strength. It will be designated as a Tropical Storm at a speed of 39 miles per hour.

“The biggest threat will be the heavy rain,” Walker said. “That region is already saturated from the spring rain and the runoff from the rivers. That will put a real strain on the rivers and the levees.”

Storm heads for Louisiana

On Thursday, U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude approached $61 a barrel, while natural gas futures are trading near the highest level in six weeks.

Gulf of Mexico operators have shut-in 602,715 barrels a day of oil production ahead of the storm, the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said in a notice. Almost 500 million cubic feet a day of natural gas production is also closed.

The Gulf offshore region accounts for 16% of U.S. crude oil output and less than 3% of dry natural gas, according to the Energy Information Administration. More than 45% of U.S. refining capacity and 51% of gas processing is along the Gulf coast.

While the offshore platforms could return to normal operations in a few days, there is a chance widespread flooding could close some refineries and make it difficult for ships to make deliveries across the region, Jim Rouiller, chief meteorologist at the Energy Weather Group near Philadelphia, said by telephone.

“The first impact is to the rigs and platforms, then the second risk shows up on Friday and Saturday to the refinery areas,” Rouiller said. “The thing that is going to be really worrisome is the amount of flooding rains across Louisiana. I think the worst is yet to come.”

Based on its current track, the storm will likely cause just under $1 billion in flood damage, said Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler with Enki Research in Savannah, Georgia.

The storm could push a 3-to-6 foot storm surge up the lower Mississippi, raising the river to its highest levels in 90 years, according to the National Weather Service. “It would be the highest modern day level,” said Jeff Graschel, service coordination hydrologist with the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center in Slidell, Louisiana.

Shippers were pushing fewer barges down the Mississippi River from Cairo, Illinois, to the Gulf due to high waters, according to an industry newsletter published by operator American Commercial Barge Line Inc. The Southwest Pass channel at the mouth of the river closed at midday on Wednesday, halting traffic of ocean vessels, according to the newsletter.

Agricultural giant Cargill Inc. is preparing to temporarily close facilities in Reserve and Westwego, Louisiana, because of the storm threat, April Nelson, a company spokeswoman, said by email Wednesday.

Thunderstorms have already flooded New Orleans streets and the National Weather Service has issued a flash flood watch from southern Louisiana to the Florida panhandle. City pumps had trouble keeping up with the water, which is a “bad sign,” said Enki Research’s Watson.

Related: 

• Catastrophe planning: Ensuring calm during the storm
• Storm safety and recovery
• Wall Street embraces weather risk in new era of storms, drought

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