The start of the 2018 hurricane season is just a few weeks away, and this year, experts have good news, predicting a calmer forecast for the Atlantic than 2017 brought.
The Weather Company has released its first seasonal tropical forecast for the North Atlantic basin for the 2018 season, and this year, the numbers are closer to the Atlantic Basin's 30-year historical average (1981-2010) of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Due to cooler tropical Atlantic temperatures and an expected trend away from La Nina conditions, the IBM team officially predicts 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater intensity for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.
In a deeper analysis of this forecast, The Weather Company team elaborates on several reasons forecasters are predicting these near-average numbers for 2018.
Aside from cooler ocean temperatures, the experts at IBM say the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is defined as a pattern of pressure gradients over the northern Atlantic Ocean, is expected to trend slightly positive through much of the spring. This creates unfavorable conditions for hurricanes, and decreases the chances of an active year.
|Hurricane season prep
Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist at The Weather Company, says that if, like last year, the Atlantic atmospheric pattern forces sharply warming tropical waters during late spring and early summer, then we could have another more active season.
Further, Crawford adds, the expected trend away from La Nina conditions may fail again as it did last year. And despite any forecast, The Weather Company team reminds those on the coast that it only takes one storm to create devastating and life-threatening damage. These residents should prepare for hurricane season each year, regardless of what any predictions may say.
Crawford adds that while it is still too early to focus on preferred landfall regions, weather experts at The Weather Company will be focusing on those predictions over the next few months, and will be sharing monthly updates to this forecast.
Other seasonal forecasts for named storms (NS), hurricanes (HU) and major hurricanes (MH) include:
- Colorado State University: 14 NS, 7 HU, 3 MH
- North Carolina State University: 14-18 NS, 7-11 HU, 3-5 MH
- Tropical Storm Risk/University College London: 12 TS, 6 HU, 2 MH
The Weather Company provides customized weather information to global commodity traders via its industry-leading WSI Trader Website. Check out their website for more industry-specific information.
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Danielle Ling
Danielle Ling is an experienced video journalist and business reporter. As associate editor, Danielle manages all multimedia and reports on industry news and risk-related coverage, managing all weather-related content. A University of Maryland and Philip Merrill College of Journalism alum, Danielle previously served as a video journalist for Verizon FiOS 1 News NJ, Push Pause. Connect with Danielle on LinkedIn or email her at [email protected].
