Allianz’s Risk Barometer 2018 has been released its annual survey of risk experts from 80 countries. The highest-ranking threats to corporations are contained in the report, which spans the globe and offers insight from 1,911 respondents on what various nations believe to be the greatest areas of concern.
For the first time, the No. 1 risk this year in the U.S. (with 45% of the vote) is cyber incidents (moving up from No. 2 from last year), with business interruption also considered the largest loss driver after a cyber incident. (See the full list in the graphic on the next page of this story.)
Cyber risk modeler Cyence, which partners with Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty, estimates that the average cost impact of a cloud outage lasting more than 12 hours for companies in the financial, healthcare and retail sectors could total $850 million in North America and $700 million in Europe.
Recent events such as the WannaCry and Petya ransomware attacks brought significant financial losses to a large number of businesses. Others, such as Mirai, the largest-ever distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack on major internet platforms and services in Europe and North America, at the end of 2016, demonstrate the interconnectedness of risks and shared reliance on common Internet infrastructure and service providers.
Business interruption (including supply chain disruption) moved to No. 2 (with 39%), and natural catastrophes a close third (38% of the vote). BI (see chart below) ranks as the most important risk globally for the sixth year in a row. Companies face an increasing number of scenarios, ranging from traditional exposures, such as fire, natural disasters and supply chain disruption, to new triggers stemming from digitalization and interconnectedness that typically come without physical damage, but with high financial loss.
Additionally, recently identified security flaws in computer chips in nearly every modern device reveal the cyber vulnerability of modern societies. The potential for so-called “cyber hurricane” events to occur, in which hackers disrupt larger numbers of companies by targeting common infrastructure dependencies, will continue to grow in 2018.
In what will surely come as good news to brokers, the Allianz Risk Barometer results illustrate that awareness of the cyber threat is soaring among small- and medium-sized businesses, with a significant jump from No. 6 to No. 2 for small companies and from No. 3 to No. 1 for medium-sized companies.
With regard to sector exposure, cyber incidents rank tops in the Entertainment & Media, Financial Services, Technology and Telecommunications industries.
A new entry to the U.S. Top 10: climate change, an interesting addition since — unfortunately — that term has become politically loaded despite hard evidence that Earth is becoming increasingly warmer.
Thomas Varney, regional manager for Allianz Risk Consulting and one of the top minds behind the report, noted that with a record-breaking $135 billion in insured losses from nat cats alone in 2017, natural catastrophes returned to the top three business risks globally this year. As industries become leaner and more connected, natural catastrophes can disrupt a large variety of sectors that might not seem directly affected at first glance around the world.
Another risk showing up in the top 10 (at least globally, not in the U.S.), was power blackouts. Austria, Germany and Nigeria named this topic as a significant risk. A reliable power supply is the backbone of our societies and economies, and it’s systemically interlinked to other top risks such as natural catastrophes, climate change and cyber attacks.
Further there’s great concern that cyber attacks could bring down the power supply of nearly an entire country, as described in a Lloyd's scenario published in 2015. That research estimates the economic and insurance impacts of a severe, yet plausible, cyber attack against the U.S. power grid.
Varey says that at the end of the day, brokers have to be vigilant about the risks faced by their clients, and maintain an ongoing dialogue. “Due diligence is needed to help businesses understand their exposures so that coverage gaps can be closed. The concerns of the client must be discussed with the carrier and the broker as the business evolves,” he told me. “It’s not a one-and-done conversation. I understand my exposures today, but tomorrow there’ll be another.”
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