The whole transportation sector is in for massive transformation.
The way that people and goods will be moved from point A to point B in the future will be completely different. I am not (yet) talking about a Star Trek style transporter, although scientists have moved matter at the atomic level from one side of a room to another, so we may eventually get there.
The transformation I want to focus on is much closer. Consider the future that the young children of today may experience. They may never own a car, or understand what it means to hail a taxi, or even rent a car. The next generation will find it odd that we used to put "gas" in our vehicles, and may think of driving a vehicle as something that you do in an amusement park. Imagine the future at Disneyworld, standing in a long line waiting for the new "1978 Camaro ride."
When you consider the impact of telematics, electric vehicles, the sharing economy, autonomous vehicles, and new modes of transportation — like the Hyperloop or the fleet of drone taxis that Dubai plans to have in operation by 2020 — you start to see that these developments are not just science fiction. They are becoming science reality.
|Mixed blessing for insurers
Collectively, these technologies and trends have the potential to dramatically reduce accidents, improve safety and optimize vehicle usage, which are great benefits for society as a whole. For insurers, however, this is a mixed blessing. Insurers have always been some of the biggest proponents of technologies that improve the safety of vehicles. But the potential to dramatically reduce accidents also comes with the probability of dramatically reduced premiums — the bread and butter of many P&C insurance companies (for both personal auto and commercial fleets).
SMA's view is that these key trends in the transportation segment — telematics, autonomous, electric, the sharing economy, safety tech, and new modes of transportation — will converge around 2030 to create a completely new environment. But the transformation has already begun. Telematics is already gaining traction.
Uber and Lyft are examples of the sharing economy that are disrupting taxi and livery industries and offering new ways for people to travel without having to own a car. Autonomous vehicles are in the news and on the roads with significant testing underway. Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) like collision avoidance systems and lane departure warnings are becoming standard options in many new cars.
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