(Bloomberg) – Forecasters again lowered the odds of El Nino forming by year's end, a scenario that may mean more Atlantic hurricanes at a time when federal agencies charged with predicting and responding to natural disasters lack top administrators.

The updated forecast, which is more reliable than earlier versions, sees a 36% chance El Nino will emerge between October and December, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said Thursday. That's down from 46% last month and 53% in March.

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