If 2016 could be called "The Year of the Unexpected" for so many reasons, thus far one could call 2017 "The Year of the Wild Card."

Investment returns, which have proven dismal for so long, could see a comeback over the next few years if President Trump's penchant for deregulation and "unshackling" big business becomes a reality.

It's getting hard to remember a time when returns were positive: The insurance industry has experienced a significant decline in its net investment income, which dropped from $31.6 billion in early 2015 to $26.5 billion in the first half of 2016.

According to Ernst & Young's 2017 U.S. Property-Casualty Outlook, only a moderate 2.1 percent economic growth had been forecast, but now some analysts believe that Trump's intention to cut taxes and increase infrastructure spending could have an even more positive impact, helping increase growth and long-term interest rates. Still, some remain cautious: Institutions such as Bank of America have cut their growth outlooks for 2017. Bank of America reduced its from 2.1 percent to 1.8 percent, and Munich Re predicts a decline in premium growth from 4 percent to 1.5 percent.

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Strategic acquisitions

Merger-and-acquisition activity will, of course, continue this year as P&C carriers look to make strategic acquisitions to achieve scale and leverage, but also expertise in surplus lines. Carriers seem to have come around to the fact that the real organic growth they covet has been happening in the E&S sector for some time now, and they're looking to grab themselves a piece of that action.

One need look no further than Liberty Mutual's $3 billion purchase of Ironshore to illustrate how a major P&C player made a smart investment to expand its specialty lines business.

As we note in our cover feature this month, cyber security will also continue to be a major issue in 2017. Don't be surprised to see cyber attacks increase in frequency as well as severity, and more than one insurer I spoke with for that story confided that they're concerned about aggregated policies that could all trigger at once. If that should happen — if "the big one" should hit this year and truly put cyber insurance on the map, expect rates to jump as carriers continue to mitigate (and get their head around) the myriad, ever-changing risks they're writing.

With both frequency and severity of claims continuing to accelerate in both personal and commercial auto, insurers are expected to raise premiums. Gas prices are forecasted to remain lower than they have been in years, and the number of miles driven will continue to rise. In the workers' comp world, Trump's election eased the minds of those who might have anticipated greater federal oversight of that industry under another Democratic administration.

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Need for new talent, InsurTech, disruption

There's also the small matter of filling the vacancies that will be left by a projected 70,000 retirees from the P&C business this year alone. It's an issue that, sadly, much of the industry remains hopeful that someone else will do something about, and that young talent will magically become attracted to the insurance business. Look for this to grow into a larger problem over the next few years, and we'll continue to beat the drum over this serious issue.

An additional trend worth watching: the number of P&C carriers forming partnerships with InsurTech startups and others to incorporate new technologies in order to better serve customers — especially on the claims front.

One new key disruptor that also warrants notice is the ability to provide on-demand coverage. Keep an eye on insurance technology start-up Trov, which will be rolling out on-demand insurance in 2017 — enabling policyholders to activate and turn off coverage for their personal belongings as needed, via their cell phones.

In any case, odds are that the P&C industry could be in for a wild ride in 2017. We'll continue to do our best to break it all down and make sense of the business for you as we always have, and my team and I sincerely thank you for continuing to make us your most trusted source for P&C news and analysis.

If you see me at a conference this year, please come up and say hello — I may be Irish, but I promise not to talk your ear off too much.

See you on the road.

Shawn Moynihan is Editor-in-Chief of National Underwriter Property & Casualty. He can be reached at [email protected] Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own.

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Shawn Moynihan

Shawn Moynihan is Editor-in-Chief of National Underwriter Property & Casualty. A St. John’s University alum, Moynihan has earned 11 Jesse H. Neal Awards, the Pulitzers of the business press; seven Azbee Awards, from the American Society of Business Press Editors; two Folio Awards; and a SABEW award, from the Society of American Business Editors & Writers. Prior to joining ALM, he served as Managing Editor/Online Editor of journalism institution Editor & Publisher, the trade bible of the newspaper industry. Moynihan also has held editorial positions with AOL, Metro New York, and Newhouse Newspapers. He can be reached at [email protected].