Updated 2 p.m. ET, Nov. 10, 2016

Many Americans, especially those on the East Coast, stayed up until the early morning hours on Nov. 9 to learn the final outcome of the 2016 elections.

Although some state races are still undecided, Donald J. Trump was elected the 45th president of the United States on Nov. 8 in a stunning upset over Hillary Rodham Clinton.

When the news of Trump's victory broke financial markets around the world took a nosedive, with trading in S&P Futures halted in the early hours of Nov. 9. Gold prices, long seen as a safe haven for investors, rose. The financial markets rebounded, with the Dow briefly reaching an historic high of 18,647 at 3:20 p.m. ET, closing at 18,589 — providing a glimmer of hope for insurers who have for too long been beset by pitiful investment returns.

Yet the biggest question still on everyone's mind is: "Now what?"

PropertyCasualty360.com has compiled the views of several Property & Casualty insurance industry experts on what a Trump presidency — along with a Republican-controlled Congress — could mean for purveyors of P&C insurance, at least in the short term.

"With this election finally over, it is time to put the interests of the entire country first," the Alexandria, Virginia-based National Association of Professional Insurance Agents said in a statement, acknowledging the divisiveness of the 2016 campaign.

"While both political parties campaigned on differing roles of the private market and regulation, the National Association of Professional Insurance Agents will continue its efforts to promote the valued role of the professional independent insurance agent by seeking business-friendly policies that will encourage a strong market," the group added. "In addition to capturing the White House, Republicans will continue to control both houses of Congress. Keeping in mind that neither party holds a 60-vote 'super-majority' PIA encourages the next Congress to avert stalemates by finding bipartisan solutions to strengthen our economy."

Leigh Ann Pusey, president and CEO of the Washington-based American Insurance Association, said in a statement, "With the election of Mr. Trump as president, Republicans now control both chambers of Congress and the White House. The combination gives us hope that the legislative log jam can be broken.

"The property-casualty industry looks forward to working with the upcoming 115th Congress on significant issues of legislative and regulatory importance," Pusey continued. These include reforming and obtaining a long-term reauthorization of the National Flood Insurance Program; passing comprehensive tax reform that respects the fundamental structural and regulatory differences between insurers and other financial services industries; and finding a solution for insurers that addresses the need for a uniform approach to cybersecurity, she said.

"We also anticipate a more balanced approach to regulations that will allow the industry to grow and develop new markets that respond to technological advances, such as telematics, big data and autonomous vehicles," Pusey added. "Additionally, we congratulate Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) on his reelection to the Senate, and incoming chairmanship of the Senate Banking Committee. It is our hope that new members of Congress and the Trump administration will work to find common ground in the 115th Congress on these important issues."

Brady Kelley, executive director of NAPSLO, said that the organization's focus will continue to be on educating members of Congress — especially new ones — about the surplus lines market, how it operates, how it performs, and how it is regulated. "Our efforts in this regard will simply increase with a number of new members to work with in the next session of Congress," Kelley told PC360. "Our other priorities in D.C.: one, preserving the uniformity and efficiency provided by the NRRA; two, private-market solutions and consumer choices for complex flood risks; and three, promoting national uniformity in producer licensing. All represent issues that have already received strong bi-partisan support."

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Less federal oversight predicted

Mark Walls, vice president of communications and strategic analysis for St. Louis-based insurer Safety National, says the Republican presidential victory reduces the possibility of federal oversight in workers' compensation, something that had seemed more likely under another Democratic administration. 

"We can take a deep breath when it comes to the threat of federal intervention in workers' compensation," Walls tells PropertyCasualty360.com. "A new administration means a new agenda for the Department of Labor. We will see what that agenda is but I do not expect it to include increased federal government involvement in state issues."

Matthew Josefowicz, president and CEO of Boston-based insurance technology consulting and research company Novarica, predicts that federal oversight of financial services is likely to be reduced with an incoming Republican administration backed by a Republican Congress.

"While some insurers may find that encouraging," he said, "this also has the potential to embolden attorneys general and insurance commissioners in major Democratic-leaning states like California and New York. Insurers may find themselves dealing with aggressive state regulators with strong positions on things like privacy, cybersecurity, acceptable uses of third-party data in rating, and other things. This could reduce agility in key markets and increase operating complexity generally for P&C insurers. New York's proposed cybersecurity regulations may be just the beginning."

In discussing the investment climate, Josefowicz added that "Insurers need to keep worrying about interest rates. While the incoming administration has said they favor higher interest rates, market uncertainty, a global low interest environment, a rhetorical focus on jobs creation, and a Fed chair whose term lasts until 2018 may indicate that the current ultra-low interest rates will continue for the next few years, at least. Insurers will remain in the double-bind of being resource strapped while badly needing to invest in new capabilities."

He added that reduced regulation of the financial services industry could also accelerate the movement of alternative capital into the reinsurance and specialty risk market.

The Coalition Against Insurance Fraud, based in Washington, D.C., said that the biggest concern is whether the Trump administration will continue the federal government's aggressive stand in combatting healthcare fraud. FBI investigations and Department of Justice prosecutions have helped set records for arrests, convictions and financial recoveries in the last eight years, according to the Coalition.

As for state elections, the Coalition noted that Wayne Goodwin, the insurance commissioner in North Carolina, lost his election. He was a strong supporter of anti-fraud measures, sponsoring an effective fraud bureau, and he currently chairs the NAIC Anti-Fraud Task Force. The change of governors and insurance commissioners in other states, such as Delaware, also may affect law-enforcement efforts to combat fraud.

Global reinsurer Swiss Re noted in a prepared statement that "There is a high degree of uncertainty as to the extent to which Mr. Trump's stated policy agenda will be implemented once he is in office." The company expects that insurers will be most affected by Trump's proposals related to Obamacare and the environment. On Obamacare, no clear alternative has been laid out yet. On the environment, Trump can put a stop to efforts to curb carbon dioxide emissions and fight climate change by rejecting the Paris climate treaty, re-starting the review of the Keystone oil pipeline, allowing for oil exploration in Alaska and the Arctic Ocean, and withdrawing existing climate regulations or stopping their enforcement.

Given the wide range of uncertainties regarding Trump's policy proposals, Swiss Re added, it's difficult to estimate the extent of the impact on the economy and its timing. "Our view is that most of the impact will be slow moving and will occur in 2018-2019 at the earliest."

According Michael Trilli, a senior insurance analyst at Boston-based research company Aite Group, a less regulation-focused administration will allow more opportunities for growth in business, providing carriers more opportunities to underwrite business.

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Rosalie Donlon

Rosalie Donlon is the editor in chief of ALM's insurance and tax publications, including NU Property & Casualty magazine and NU PropertyCasualty360.com. You can contact her at [email protected].