Following several years of quiet hurricane seasons, a new report by CoreLogic, a property information and analytics company based in Irvine, Calif., says that as many as 6.8 million homes along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts could be at risk for hurricane storm surges.
This could be an issue as the El Niño weather pattern which normally suppresses hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean yields to the La Niña pattern, known for generating more tropical storms and hurricanes.
The good news is that the number of homes in the most extreme category has dropped, as has the value of those homes at risk. The study also highlights the total reconstruction cost for homes along the coasts at more than $1.5 trillion.
“Using more granular-level data has given us an even clearer picture of which homes are at risk of storm surge damage,” said Tom Jeffery, senior hazard risk scientist for CoreLogic. “Despite the overall increases in risk, we were glad to see that the number and value of homes in the most extreme, and dangerous, category actually declined. It just goes to show the power of how advanced data can improve risk assessment at the property level.”
Along the Atlantic Coast, the report indicates that just under 3.9 million homes could be affected by storm surge and the cost to rebuild them would run $953 billion. There are an estimated 2.9 million homes along the Gulf Coast that are at risk with a price tag of $592 billion in potential exposure damage.
Here are the top five areas at most risk:
No. 1: Florida
Several factors determine a state's risk rate. Texas and Florida have the longest coastal areas, which puts more homes at risk than some other states. Florida ranks number one with 2.7 million homes at risk with 1.7 million in the high to extreme risk categories. According to CoreLogic, it also leads the country in reconstruction cost value at $535.6 billion.
Two areas in Florida, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach, have the highest number of homes at risk with 780,482 and a reconstruction cost value of just under $144 billion.
No. 2: Louisiana
Louisiana has less coastal exposure, but its low-level elevation puts 800,521 homes at risk, placing it second in the country for the number of homes that could be affected.
The reconstruction cost value totals more than $184.3 billion. Over 600,000 homes fall into the high to extreme risk categories with those homes comprising $139.8 billion of the reconstruction costs.
No. 3: Texas
Texas ranks third with 531,169 homes at risk, but fifth in terms of the reconstruction costs at $91 billion.
Houston, which has been pummeled by rain and flooding this spring, is the only Texas-based city listed in CoreLogic's top 15 metropolitan areas at risk for storm surge with 280,112 potential homes that could be impacted and a reconstruction value of $51.8 billion.
No. 4: New Jersey
New Jersey and New York don't have as much coastal area that could be exposed to storm surge, but as Hurricane Sandy demonstrated, both states are at risk because the distance the storm surge can travel inland.
New Jersey has 468,823 homes at risk, placing it fourth on the list, with 378,000 homes falling in the high to extreme categories. The state also places fourth for the reconstruction value costs at almost $139.6 billion.
No. 5: New York
Rounding out the top five states at risk for hurricane storm surge damage is New York, with a total of 458,730 homes.
All but 114,903 of those homes fall into the high to extreme risk areas. New York City is No. 2 on the list of top metropolitan areas at risk with an estimated reconstruction cost value of $260.1 billion. CoreLogic found where a storm hits is far more important than the number of storms that may form in any given year.
The analysis complements the flood zone information provided by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and shows that properties located outside of flood zones are still at risk for damage from storm surges, as well as fresh water.
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