Last year marked the 10th consecutive year without a major hurricane landfall in the United States. This is a record worth considering from a predictive capacity in light of the upcoming 2016 Atlantic hurricane season.

Recall that last season was characterized by both below-normal landfall and basin activity, which has occurred four times (in 2006, 2009, 2014 and 2015) since the overly productive years of 2004 and 2005. The 2015 season was influenced by a full-blown El Niño — a phenomenon that occurs every two to seven years, during which warm water in the western tropical Pacific extends eastward to South America — and typically contributes to below-normal tropical cyclone frequency in the North Atlantic and above-normal activity across the Pacific. Last year, there was record-breaking high activity across the Eastern and Central Pacific.

The well-known impact of El Niño — increased vertical wind shear over the Atlantic main development region that is detrimental to hurricane formation — is opposite to that of La Niña, the condition expected to emerge this season. It is too early, however, to say whether one will actually develop. The unusually cold ocean conditions in the equatorial Pacific that occur during La Niña produce lower vertical wind shear over the main development region, creating a much more favorable environment for hurricane formation.