To those outside of the industry, there is a perception that insurance is dull and boring, behind the times technologically and certainly not a field anyone would consider for a career — but they are so wrong. Insurance is a vibrant, challenging industry where the risks and rewards constantly change and the primary focus is to make a positive impact in the lives of those who need assistance following a devastating loss. And it is the only career option that offers a 98 percent chance of employment after college for students who choose risk management or other insurance-related majors.

The industry will change substantially in the next three to five years and here are 10 factors that will have a major impact on the auto and property & casualty segments as identified at the J.D. Power Insurance Claims Edge conference last fall.

1. Technology

Technology is a huge driver of customer satisfaction, from whether or not a driver's phone syncs with an auto's systems to how easy it is for policyholders to contact an insurer online or with a mobile device. A J.D. Power study found that how well drivers' technology synced their vehicles was a key determiner of whether or not they would purchase the same car the next time.

Cell phone use continues to play a major role in accidents — accounting for 26 percent of all motor vehicle crashes in 2014 with 5 percent of the crashes involving texting and 21 percent involving people who were talking on the phone. In the five seconds it takes a person to take his eyes off of the road while texting, a car can travel 403 feet at 55 miles per hour — longer than the length of a football field. While most people don't text at this speed, even at 20 miles an hour, a car can still travel about 100 yards.

Despite cell phone use restrictions and texting bans in almost every state, drivers will still talk and text, and this will continue to be an issue for insurers.

2. Aluminum & composite cars

Fuel economy mandates are forcing manufacturers to use more aluminum in cars. By 2025, aluminum use in cars will grow from 343 pounds to 550 pounds. Currently, aluminum is used primarily for wheels and engines, but that is increasing to include trunks, hoods, doors and in some cases, the entire body.

The Highway Data Loss Institute conducted three separate analyses of crash data supplied by companies to estimate the effect of aluminum on repair costs and claims. Using large luxury cars from BMW, Mercedes and Audi from 1997 to 2013, they examined the differences between aluminum cars and their steel counterparts.

The first analysis examined the Audi A8, BMW 7 and the Mercedes Benz S Class and was based on 67,756 collision claims. They found that overall claim severity for aluminum Audi A8 cars was 14 percent higher compared to their steel counterparts. The Audi A8 repairable claims were also 13 percent higher than comparable vehicles. Salvage rates for all of the cars were under 10 percent.

The second analysis compared the Audi A6, BMW 5 series, Mercedes Benz E class and Jaguar XJ for model years 1997-2013 and involved 281,000 collision claims. The analysis compared low component use of aluminum for items like the engine block, hood and fenders; significant usage for the roof, rails, suspension and doors; and high use in vehicles that were almost completely composed of aluminum.

Claims severity was 20 percent higher for high aluminum content cars compared to 9 percent for medium-use vehicles. Repairable claims were 19 percent higher for high-use vehicles vs. 5 percent for medium-use autos.

A third analysis compared the BMW 5 series (model years 2004-2010) and conducted a specific point by point comparison of side, front and rear impacts for aluminum cars. In front-end collisions, impacts for aluminum vehicles cost 20 percent more than steel vehicles. There was a 10 percent decrease in collision costs for rear impact crashes, but the study organizers said this wasn't statistically significant, nor were the side impact figures. They concluded that aluminum vehicles had higher collision claim severities than steel cars and the more aluminum used, the higher the claims.

As more body shops become equipped to repair aluminum vehicles, this could drive repair prices down. Currently, there are significant costs for training and set up since aluminum vehicles must be repaired in a facility separate from steel cars because the aluminum particles will break down steel. Aluminum repairs also require different tools and techniques, which add to the costs.

3. Millennials

Fewer millennials are buying cars, which reduces the number of insurance policies. They have a lot of ride-sharing options or they live close enough to work to take mass transit, walk or ride their bikes. In addition, public transportation apps are changing the way people get around.

Transportation network companies like Uber, Zipcar, Lyft are springing up in cities around the globe — creating a new transportation option, as well as coverage issues for insurers. Technology is changing the ride options for millions of consumers as smartphone users can access a number of transportation options.

All of these factors will have some impact on car insurance including who is insured, who isn't, who is liable in case of an accident and what coverage is required.

4. Self-service insurance

Mobile apps are changing the way insurers provide services to their customers who can now purchase insurance online, file a claim or follow the claim as it progresses.

Insurers like USAA, Allstate and State Farm have apps that allow customers to send photos of claims to a desktop adjuster who guides the policyholders on what pictures to take so they can file the first notice of loss even faster and more completely. The apps can also provide feedback, driving tips and other helpful information to help insureds reduce or manage their risk.

Policyholders are demanding access to insurers and information via their mobile devices on a 24/7 basis and for insurers the challenge involves meeting those needs without losing the personal interaction with customers.

5. Autonomous cars

Self-driving cars are closer to becoming a reality. Google has been testing vehicles for several years and expects to introduce a working car by 2020. Volvo, Toyota, Mercedes and Audi are all testing autonomous cars as well. Some will be fully autonomous and others will allow drivers to switch back and forth between automatic driving and allowing the human driver to have control.

Since Google introduced their prototypes, they have traveled 1.2 million miles on public roads, obtained a top speed of 25 mph and can actually be summoned by a smart phone. Volvo expects to have its cars tested on city streets by ordinary drivers by 2017. But all of this autonomy raises several interesting issues for insurers:

  • Will car insurance become obsolete?

  • With several manufacturers willing to accept liability for accidents involving their technology, the responsibility shifts away from the driver to product liability for manufacturers, which in turn will impact insurers.

  • Given the number of recalls the industry saw in 2014 for air bags, ignition switches and other parts, this opens up areas of subrogation for suppliers whose parts are defective or malfunction in autonomous vehicles.

  • If the driver can switch back and forth from the car being autonomous to the driver being in control — who will be liable if there is an accident — the driver or the car?

Manufacturers need to be aware of the vulnerabilities associated with autonomous cars and how to address them. Insurers should consider how they will provide coverage to manage the risks with these vehicles.

6. Product recalls

In 2014, more than 16.5 million vehicles were sold, but it was a record-setting year for recalls with

63.7 million vehicles recalled for everything from ignition switches to faulty airbags. The previous record was 30.8 million in 2004.

With self-driving cars, product liability could significantly increase for manufacturers and their insurers.

7. New technology

When it comes to new technology for property adjusting, there are a number of exciting options from companies like Spike, Spex, and Livegenic that allow adjusters to use tablets, cell phones and other mobile devices to quickly and effectively adjust losses.

New technologies are particularly important because they will help to mitigate the major talent shortage the industry will experience in the next three years when 25 percent of insurance professionals retire. This will mean more self-adjusting by insureds, who will send information to office adjusters. For field adjusters, some of the technologies that will impact how they will collect information include Google Glass, drones and maybe even robots.

8. Natural disasters

All things considered, 2015 was a fairly mild year for catastrophes until the last quarter. Insurers saw their profitability increase 97 percent in the first quarter of 2015 as compared to the same period in 2014, which saw growth of 95.7 percent. However, flooding from Hurricane Patricia, heavy rains in North and South Carolina, combined with wildfires earlier in the year caused at least $24 billion in property losses. Still, as catastrophes become more severe and damage more infrastructure, the economic impact for insurers and policyholders will continue to rise.

9. Cyber security/Fraud

In 2012, insurers wrote $850 million in cyber coverage; by 2014 that figure had risen to $2.5 billion with global losses of $445 billion. Approximately 90 percent of the cyber premiums are written in the U.S.

According to Travelers Insurance, 50 percent of small businesses have been hacked and 60 percent of the attacks in 2014 struck small to medium-sized businesses. All data has value and some information such as social security numbers or healthcare records, command higher prices than cell phone numbers or passwords.

Ransomware and social engineering fraud are two newer versions of cyber fraud insurers and businesses should be aware of them when creating a cyber risk management program.

10. Emerging risks

There are a number of emerging risks that insurers would be wise to monitor because of the increased threats associated with them. Legalized marijuana, drugged driving and fracking are three of the biggest risks that will affect insurers and require specialized coverage in the coming years.

Increased drug use

Drugs — both legal and illegal — are impacting Auto, Property and Workers' Compensation insurance. Approximately 40 percent of fatally injured drivers tested positive for drugs — almost the same number as those testing positive for alcohol. Testing for drugs is complicated since there are 430 specific drugs or metabolites in the national highway safety fatality database. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration found that 22 percent of all drivers in a recent roadside survey tested positive for drugs or some type of medication

Legalized marijuana

As more and more states legalize marijuana, it will begin to impact employers as well as multiple insurance lines like Auto and Workers' Comp, creating conflicts between individual states and insurers due to the lack of federal regulations.

Fracking

From 1975-2008, Oklahoma had less than three earthquakes registering 3.0 or larger in a year. That figure rose dramatically to 40 per year beginning in 2009, when the state allowed fracking. Currently, Oklahoma has more 3.0 or greater earthquakes than California, and in 2015 was on pace to endure close to 1,000 earthquakes. There is a concern that the increase in moderate-sized earthquakes could raise the risk of larger ones in the future

Where the injection of fracking wastewater has stopped, so have the earthquakes. Another concern involves large oil storage tanks that were located in Oklahoma after 9/11. So far, no damage has been reported by the companies that own the tanks, but businesses around the fracking fields have been advised to update their emergency disaster plans just in case a leak or something worse occurs.

Additional risks

Other factors that could impact the industry include an increase in mergers & acquisitions in the insurance and other industries. Consolidation has benefits, but also involves initial expenses as the companies combine resources and workforces, merge work styles and environments, and create fewer options in their respective marketplaces.

Decaying infrastructure due to aging and poor maintenance will impact property and casualty covers, and possibly involve environmental damage because of aging pipelines that fail.

Sinking cities due to groundwater mismanagement could result in damage to buildings, foundations, substructures, gas pipes and increase the potential for large property and casualty claims.

Risks from extreme weather and wildfires will also continue to increase as their frequency and severity have global implications on supply chains, as well as property and casualty claims.

As insurers and risk managers know, the challenge will be identifying the coverage gaps associated with many of these factors, as well as the opportunities they present. One thing is certain, it will never be boring.

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