An article released earlier this year began a discussion of several broad demographic changes that continue to drive change within the automotive claims and collision repair industries. Demographics of age and race were explored previously; here we will explore further demographic shifts in terms of where people are choosing to live and how that may be driving auto claim frequency trends.
Where are people living?
Data from the U.S. Department of Transportation shows the U.S. population grew by 12.2%, from 282.2 million residents to 316 million between CY2000 and CY2013.[1] Among the four primary census regions, resident population grew most in the South, followed by the West regions, and much slower growth occurred in the Northeast and Midwest regions.[2]
Data from the U.S. Department of Transportation reveals the U.S. population has become increasingly urban, with the most growth occurring in the suburban areas.[3] In fact, three quarters of all population growth since 1980 has occurred in the suburbs.[4] And even while the annual population growth rate of large cities in the U.S. between 2010 and 2013 was double what it had been in the previous decade, outpacing the growth rate in suburbs, approximately 50% of all Americans still live in the suburbs.[5]
Analysis of recent census data through July 2014 by William Frey of the Brookings Institute confirms populations in the U.S. large cities has continued to grow, but the rate of growth slowed in most recent years.[6] In fact, 7 of the 10 largest U.S. cities experienced slower growth rates in 2013-2014 than in 2012-2013.[7] Among the fastest growing cities of 250K or more residents now appear to be in Texas (Austin and Fort Worth), the Southeast (Orlando, FL and Durham, NC), and the Mountain West (Henderson, NV and Denver, CO).[8]
Of special note is that in 32 of the 53 large metro areas in the U.S. (with population exceeding 250K) there has been stronger growth in suburban growth than in primary-city growth between CY 2013 and 2014.[9] With suburban residents typically relying on their vehicles to commute to work and other places, this is yet another factor adding to increased road congestion in the U.S.
More people, more miles
Nationally, the U.S. has seen steady growth in the overall number of miles driven. After peaking pre-recession, then declining and growing only moderately during and after the recession, miles driven have experienced some of their largest increases so far in 2015. For the rolling 12 month period ended July 2015, miles driven in the U.S. are now up 2.1% above the prior peak for the 12 months ended November 2007, and miles driven this year through July nationally are up nearly 4% versus 2014 through July.[10]
When broken out by census region, the largest increases in overall miles driven are in the West and South where resident population has also seen more growth.[11]
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