There is good news, however. Medical treatment guidelines and drug formularies continue to be developed in states across the country. As experts with a shared interest in cost-effectively delivering quality medical outcomes for injured workers, all of us must understand this issue, and translate that understanding into action by becoming involved in efforts to improve workers’ compensation systems and develop treatment guidelines and formularies.

• Pharmacy trends. There are disturbing pharmacy trends at the provider level. For example, some treating physicians appear to be trying to avoid fee schedules by dispensing prescriptions, compounding medications, or prescribing and filling common medications at uncommon strengths.

At the macro level, prescription spending continues to grow. In 2014, Americans spent $392 billion on prescriptions, up 6%. In fact, per-capita pharmacy spending in the U.S. is twice as high as the average of all other developed countries.

Contributing to this, big pharma spent $24 billion on advertising to doctors in 2014, and $4 billion advertising directly to consumers—and this is impacting the workers’ compensation system. Stories of claimants asking treating physicians for specific, brand-name medications are all too common.

Demographic challenges

Three emerging demographic challenges also threaten the market:

• The birth of the “sharing” or “Labor on Demand” economy, driven by technology’s ability to enable Millennials—and others—to develop a unique work-life balance. The on-demand economy is best exemplified by online taxi services such as Uber and Lyft.

Here there is neither a formal workplace nor defined hours of employment, as many of the sharing economy’s facilitators disclaim having employees, insisting they are “independent contractors.” While ongoing court actions in California and other states may undo Uber’s business model, the on-demand economy could impact the workers’ compensation market by significantly decreasing the number of employees in formal relationships with companies, and changing the definition of a workplace injury.

• The aging workforce. Today, roughly 20% of the workforce is aged 65 or older, double the rate in the 1990s. This group typically has fewer but more expensive workplace accidents and injuries; their experience tends to make them safer, while their age often requires longer treatment when they do become injured. In fact, the number of days away from work for employees age 55 and older is nearly double that for other employees, according to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The impact of the prolonged low investment environment on retirement savings is often cited as one reason older individuals stay in the workforce. It’s ironic that the same low bond yields that keep older employees at work, also contribute to greater workers compensation claim costs, and put pressure workers compensation pricing as low investment income requires stronger underwriting profitability.

• Obesity rates. Today, all 50 states have adult obesity rates of 20% or more. In fact, 35% of Americans are currently obese, and that figure could reach 50% by 2030.

This directly impacts workers’ compensation costs, which are 5.9 times higher for obese employees—driven by longer treatment times, more co-morbid conditions (such as diabetes, hypertension, et cetera), and more expensive workplace accommodations. A recent CWCI study found that obese claimants have significantly higher lost time days, were more likely to have an opioid prescription, and were more likely to involve an attorney.

While the rate of growth in obesity among adults is beginning to slow, after decades of increase, it remains too high, and will likely do so for the foreseeable future.

Today’s workers’ compensation environment is threatened by these emerging challenges—and buyers and brokers would do well to consult their TPA to better understand these potential threats and update their programs.

Debbie Michel is president of Helmsman Management Services, the wholly-owned third party administrator of Liberty Mutual Insurance. She can be reached at [email protected].