(Bloomberg) — El Nino is back.

Australia has declared the event for the first time since 2010 and says it will probably be “substantial.” Japan also said El Nino had emerged.

The tropical Pacific is in the early stages of the pattern that can bring drought to parts of Asia and rains to South America, and ocean temperatures will probably stay above thresholds through the southern hemisphere winter and at least into spring, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said Tuesday.

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