(Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc. could fall as much as 3.5% if former Chairman Maurice “Hank” Greenberg wins a lawsuit against the U.S. tied to the insurer’s 2008 bailout, Credit Suisse Group AG said.
The estimate is based on Greenberg’s Starr International Co. having a 30% chance of winning a case in which he contends that the rescue cheated shareholders out of at least $25 billion.
The risk to AIG is that U.S. Court of Federal Claims Judge Thomas Wheeler rules in Greenberg’s favor, and the government seeks to recover funds from the insurer. The New York-based insurer has said it would fight an attempt by the U.S. to collect. Credit Suisse’s Thomas Gallagher assumed a potential cost of $8 billion, based on an estimate that the figure could be as high as $23 billion and would more likely be $500 million.
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