The U.S. property and casualty industry may be nearing a crossroads in its approach to climate change, perhaps prompting a more proactive strategy on the part of individual carriers and insurance associations to limit the threat to the environment and company bottom lines over the long term.
The causes, pace, and repercussions of climate change may remain controversial for some. However, since it is often insurers that have to pay for the increasing frequency and severity of weather-related damages, delay in responding due to skepticism might prove costly. Indeed, it would be prudent for carriers to prepare for the worst when it comes to climate change, just in case the consensus of the vast majority of scientists in the field prove to be correct.
U.S. insurers and their associations have long been at the forefront in terms of adaptation to the effects of shifts in weather patterns, testing disaster-resistant construction materials and techniques while advocating stronger building codes, updated flood mapping, and more hazard-sensitive zoning laws for property development. A number of insurers have also looked to support sustainability efforts by issuing new types of “green” insurance products that facilitate construction of more environmentally friendly buildings and retrofitting to upgrade existing facilities.
However, up until recently most have tended to take a far lower profile than a number of their European counterparts in efforts to limit global warming at its source by increasing sustainability efforts and cutting carbon emissions.
External pressure on the industry to deal more comprehensively with climate change risks is likely to rise due to new demands from regulators and rating agencies. The National Association of Insurance Commissioners, for example, has a Climate Change and Global Warming Working Group in place to investigate the possible effect of weather pattern changes on insurer catastrophe modeling and investment portfolios, among other concerns.
Some insurance groups have been assuming a higher profile on their own initiative. The International Insurance Society devoted an entire day of its 2014 annual seminar in London to co-host a United Nations Financial and Private Sector Disaster Resilience Global Summit, and will discuss sustainable insurance and “climate smart investing” at U.N. headquarters during its upcoming conference this June in New York.
In addition, a number of actuarial groups have joined forces to develop an Actuaries Climate Change Index. The benchmark is designed to help insurers and policyholders better assess climate-related exposures, while prompting more proactive risk management.
Industry efforts to quantify and limit the impact of climate change will likely proliferate over the next few years, although not necessarily on a voluntary basis. Carriers can expect heightened scrutiny and more data calls from overseers evaluating how the phenomenon is being accounted for in underwriting and pricing models, reserving decisions, investment policies, and business continuity planning. These considerations could fit neatly into broader enterprise risk management transformations.
However, beyond any mandatory compliance responsibilities, the likelihood of increasing frequency and severity of climate-related disaster losses should motivate insurers to voluntarily expand their research efforts into how climate change may be disrupting the communities they serve and raising their claim costs, while exploring how they might encourage root cause mitigation.
In any case, carriers will likely need additional capabilities and skill sets to get a better handle on weather trends. One can imagine climatologists routinely serving as valuable members of an insurance company’s modeling team and underwriting department as carriers look to become more adept in pricing climate-change-related exposures.
One major opportunity may be greater privatization of the flood insurance market. Given the growing number of exposed areas and the relatively low take-up rate on federally-insured policies, this underserved market potentially represents the largest single growth opportunity in the property-casualty industry today—but only if carriers are able (and permitted to) assess the exposure with a high degree of confidence and charge actuarially-sound rates.
The bottom line
Climate change is not a new topic of conversation, particularly in international insurance company circles. Indeed, European insurers have been outspoken about how the industry might help mitigate this risk for quite some time, and to lead by example with their own operations and investments. However, U.S. insurers have been comparatively quiet on the front end of this issue. That’s likely to change.
Carriers should expect mounting pressure—from regulators, rating agencies, federal and local lawmakers, media, and the general public—to help fill the void in getting a better handle on exactly what the risks of climate change are, how to better predict their consequences, and what might be done to limit exposure and losses. Some may choose to launch their own initiatives, while others could contribute through industry-wide efforts already underway or yet to come.
Beyond risk management, however, insurers should be able to seize an opportunity around product innovation, perhaps even building a brand that resonates with sustainability-conscious consumers.
Sam Friedman ([email protected]) is insurance research leader with Deloitte’s Center for Financial Services in New York. Follow Sam on Twitter at @SamOnInsurance, as well as on LinkedIn. These opinions are his own.
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