Insurers should fasten their seat belts, because it could be a bumpy ride ahead when it comes to global economic trends and emerging exposures in 2015.
That was the key takeaway for me from a recent briefing delivered by Daniel Franklin, editor of “The World in 2015,” published by The Economist.
In my next blog, I'll focus specifically on Deloitte's own outlook when it comes to the big picture trends insurers should be addressing not just this year, but for the rest of the decade. In the short term, the stage is set for insurers to see topline growth in 2015, at least here in the United States, where GDP is on the rise and the labor market is strengthening. That should translate into more insurable exposures for carriers to cover, boosting premium volume (but not necessarily profitability) along with it.
However, in his briefing Mr. Franklin addressed some broader world-wide developments that could increase volatility in the investment markets, which is a substantial factor in determining an insurer's bottom line results.
For one, while the United States seems poised to finally start raising interest rates at some point this year, stagnating economies in Europe and Japan appear to be heading in the opposite direction. This fundamental divergence in fiscal policy could turn out to be what Mr. Franklin referred to as a “recipe for turbulence” in the stock, bond, and currency markets over the course of the year.
He also cited concerns about a “euro crisis coming back with a vengeance,” as Greece, Spain, and perhaps Italy may balk at austerity measures meant to resolve their respective debt issues. There is even talk about one or more countries threatening to abandon the euro and return to their own respective currencies, which could cause investment market turmoil reverberating well beyond Europe. While Mr. Franklin said the odds are good that the euro zone nations will “muddle through” and stick together through this latest challenge, in the interim such uncertainty could impact investment returns in the short- and long term.
Meanwhile, the collapse in oil prices may be welcome news for U.S. consumers—the equivalent of a tax cut for economic stimulus purposes. But if prices don't bounce back soon this trend could undermine the boom times being experienced in states where new sources of oil are being developed. Indeed, the United States is likely to pass Saudi Arabia in terms of oil production this year, a development which might have not only economic but geopolitical implications.
Still, even though the U.S. economy is gaining momentum, the economic center of gravity continues to shift east—to Asia in general and China in particular. China's growth appears to be slowing down from prior boom time double-digit levels, but more modest expansion of 6-to-7 percent would still be envied by the United States and Europe. In addition, while China has benefitted for years now from significant foreign investment to build its industrial base, the country's trade surpluses are financing tremendous upticks in the country's own investments abroad. China is energetically buying brands, market share, and know how, along with natural resources in foreign markets and here in the United States, noted Mr. Franklin.
Technology may turn out to be the ultimate game changer for businesses, particularly when it comes to mobile devices. Mr. Franklin cited the development of “spooky phones” and a plethora of wearable technologies, collecting data on our comings, goings, likes, dislikes, and other personal information at an exponentially rising rate—often without many even realizing it.
Mobile devices are becoming more and more intelligent, intuitive, and interactive, to the point where it would be difficult to imagine life without them. Keeping up with and capitalizing on this trend will probably be an ongoing journey, not a final destination, as insurers and other businesses are continually challenged to upgrade their mobile capabilities.
The downside is that cybersecurity has emerged as one of the biggest threats facing individuals and data-rich companies such as insurers. As a result, Mr. Franklin suggested that just as young school children learn about physical hygiene maintenance at a young age, they might soon routinely be taught how to protect their devices, online accounts, and personal data as well, since this exposure is becoming so widespread.
Last but not least, Mr. Franklin discussed some very interesting population trends. He pointed out that just a few decades ago, the world's population looked like a pyramid, with the wide bottom occupied by the mass of younger people, and a narrowing group of aging seniors at the top. Today, however, that structure looks more like a tower in many of the Western nations, as a result of falling birth rates and longer life spans. This could have major implications for insurers both as employers fighting for top talent in an aging workforce, as well as coverage providers, with the focus shifting to longevity risks.
Bottom line, the world is always a dynamic place. It's one big reason why no company can afford to stagnate in its thinking or actions. The advantage for insurers is that they literally exist to limit risk. Their business success is primarily determined not by maintenance of the status quo, but by quick responses to often rapidly changing conditions, based on sound exposure assessment and loss control. That's one major factor in their favor not likely to change any time soon.
Sam J. Friedman ([email protected]) is the research team leader at Deloitte's Center for Financial Services in New York. These opinions are his own. For many years, he was the Editor in Chief of National Underwriter's P&C edition. Follow Sam on Twitter at @SamOnInsurance, as well as on LinkedIn.
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