When you hear a weather forecast, especially a long-range one, are you skeptical? Most people are, but sometimes the forecasts can be believed. The Colorado State University (CSU) team predicted a below-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2014, and they were right! That’s good news for P&C insurers as well as flood carriers, who can breathe a sigh of relief that the season’s over.
The CSU team originally predicted nine named storms, three hurricanes and one major hurricane. The prediction was later revised to 10 named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane. The actual tally for the 2014 Atlantic basin hurricane season from June to November is eight named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes, according to the 2014 report funded by Interstate Restoration and Ironshore Insurance.
The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team of Phil Klotzbach and William Gray also closely predicted the seasonal Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which approximates the energy generated by all the storms that form during a particular year. ACE is considered to be a better measure for overall storm activity than the number of named storms or hurricanes. Klotzbach and Gray called for 65 units and the ACE for 2014 was recorded at 66 units.
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Rosalie Donlon
Rosalie Donlon is the editor in chief of ALM's insurance and tax publications, including NU Property & Casualty magazine and NU PropertyCasualty360.com. You can contact her at [email protected].
