Premium growth is closely linked to demographic changes, and while the U.S. will continue to see population growth, current trends will, over time, lead to significant changes in the personal-lines consumer base relative to what currently exists, a new report says.
In its latest report, “Personal Lines Consumer Markets Annual,” Conning notes that the U.S. is projected to add its next 100 million sometime around 2050, a 33% growth from 2006 when the population hit 300 million. This represents the slowest growth at any time in the post World War II era, the firm notes.
Conning says this slowdown in population growth will have a dampening effect on exposure and insured-value growth for personal-lines insurers. “An expanding population has fueled growth in exposure units in both personal auto and homeowners, but longer-term planning will need to reflect slower growth,” says Conning. The report adds, “All other things being equal, slower population growth is expected to slow demand, which will, in turn, exert downward pressure on asset values—personal property and vehicle.”
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