Tell someone in the insurance industry that it's all about risk, and they're likely to look at you like you've grown three heads and say condescendingly, à la the current Geico ad campaign, “Everybody knows that.” But the real risk in the industry, according to a leading futurist, may be the risk of doing nothing—of failing to adapt to the rapid, and global, pace of change in a business that increasingly and continually must prove itself responsive to consumer needs, wants, expectations, and trends.

“It's a very complacent industry in many ways, and it really isn't listening,” said David Smith, chief executive officer of Global Futures and Foresight (GFF), a strategic futures think tank formed in 2006 by Smith and fellow futurist Rohit Talwar. In a 30-year business career, Smith has held executive positions at Unisys, the UK-based DRG Group, and other companies, and as head of GFF has worked with and advised both the UK and EU governments, as well as companies such as RSA Insurance Group, Siemens, Kraft, Bausch & Lomb, and many other organizations, including insurance companies and industry associations.

“I've been sloshing around insurance for around 20 years,” Smith said. “Most folks who rise through the ranks [in insurance] are operationally oriented—and that's terrific—but the people at the top are also very risk aware, and even chief risk officers are on the board, so it's a world where the language and discussion go to people who are risk aware.”