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FSU Model Designed to Better Gauge Tornado Risk

Are tornadoes growing in intensity? What about frequency? A new statistical model may lead to answers.

By Christina Bramlet | Updated on October 01, 2013
Are tornadoes increasing in both intensity and frequency, or could skewed historical data lead us to false conclusions? This question has vexed climatologists and p&c insurers alike amid the escalating reports of twisters when compared to the previous 15 to 20 years. But researchers at Florida State University (FSU) may have answers, thanks to a model they developed to more accurately gauge tornado risk.

The pioneering researchers provide an overview of the model in “The Decreasing Population Bias in Tornado Reports across the Central Plains,” an article in Weather, Climate, and Society, an academic journal published by the American Meteorological Society. In addition to outlining the methodology, the team offers a plausible explanation as to the discrepancy in confirmed reports: namely, a population bias, coupled with the proliferation of storm chasers and recreational risk-takers roaming Tornado Alley.

Having long suspected that tornadoes were traditionally underreported in rural areas especially, James B. Elsner (a geography professor at FSU) and fellow co-authors—Lauren E. Michaels (graduate student), Kelsey N. Scheitlin, an assistant professor at the University of Tennessee at Knoxville, and Ian J. Elsner, a graduate student at the University of Florida—say the perceived uptick in tornado activity is deceiving.

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