A new hurricane model predicts that the U.S. will experience two hurricane landfalls—one on the East Coast and one along the Gulf Coast—in 2013.
The model, Coastal Carolina University's Hurricane Genesis and Outlook, or HUGO, will also provide specific storm-surge and inundation data as a hurricane approaches, CCU's forecasting team says.
The model interprets current atmospheric and oceanic conditions and compares them to past years with a similar mix of storm-influencing variables. It is the first forecast that narrows down how many hurricane formations in a season may actually hit land, CCU says, as opposed to how many may form.
The forecasting team says that six to nine hurricanes of at least 74 mph wind speeds will form in 2013. So far this year, the Atlantic has spawned four tropical storms but no hurricanes. According to CCU atmospheric scientists, the East Coast averages about one hurricane biannually and the Gulf Coast typically sees one landfall per year.
Colorado State University, meanwhile, has updated its predictions, calling for a total of 18 named storms in the Atlantic Basin between June 1 and November 30, including eight hurricanes, three of which may become major category 3 or above storms with wind speeds of at least 111 mph.
“While the tropical Atlantic remains warmer than normal, it has cooled somewhat in the eastern portion of the basin,” said Phil Klotzbach, of the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project “However, it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are unlikely. Typically, El Niño is associated with stronger vertical shear across the tropical Atlantic, creating conditions less conducive for storm formation.”
Earlier this summer, the team called for 18 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes. This falls within the range provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association for 2013.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center called for a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms in the Atlantic, or an above-average storm season. Seven to 11 may become hurricanes, with three to six may developing into Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricanes.
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