Peter Dailey is vice president and director of atmospheric science at catastrophe modeler AIR Worldwide.
What is the forecast for the 2013 hurricane season?
AIR catastrophe models are not meant to forecast the frequency or severity of hurricanes in any particular season. Rather, they are intended to help insurance companies understand and manage their potential losses over a range of potential future seasons. That said, AIR does monitor seasonal predictions made by others and the broad consensus is for an above average number of named storms and an elevated number of those storms becoming hurricanes. These forecasts, in general, are in line with the forecast recently published by NOAA, which predicts 12 to 18 named storms (with maximum winds of at least 39 mph), of which 6 to 10 are predicted to become hurricanes (with winds of at least 74 mph).
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