The global hurricane season, which begins late this month and extends until early winter, is a mixed bag in 2013, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) predicting extreme activity in the Atlantic and mild activity in the Eastern and Central Pacific Oceans.
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms in the Atlantic. Seven to 11 of these may become hurricanes, with three to six may developing into Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricanes.
“This year, oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic basin are expected to produce more and stronger hurricanes,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. “These conditions include weaker wind shear, warmer Atlantic waters and conductive winds patterns coming from Africa.”
The average for the Atlantic hurricane season from June to November is 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
NOAA's outlook for the Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific basins is expected to be calmer than usual, with a 70 percent chance of experiencing 11 to 16 named storms, five to eight hurricanes, and one to four major hurricanes.
The Pacific experiences an average of four major hurricanes from May to November. The season's first named storm, Tropical Storm Alvin, already developed on May 15.
The 2013 forecasts were completed with improved forecast modeling, data gathering, and an updated National Hurricane Center communication protocol, says NOAA, and will be updated again in early August.
“With the devastation of Sandy fresh in our minds, and another active season predicted, everyone at NOAA is committed to providing life-saving forecasts in the face of these storms and ensuring that Americans are prepared and ready ahead of time.” said Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., NOAA acting administrator.
In July, NOAA will introduce a new supercomputer to run an upgraded Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model that it says more accurately depicts storm structure and storm intensity. The transmission of real-time Doppler data into the HWRF should increase its accuracy by 10-15 percent.
Additionally, the National Weather Service now requires hurricane warnings to remain in effect even when a storm has become post-tropical, such as Hurricane Sandy was when she hit the coastline.
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